With La Niña gone, India likely to witness hotter-than-usual summer & warmer post-monsoon season, say experts

Pune: Weather experts are of the view that India could be in for a hotter-than-usual summer and a possibly warmer post-monsoon season with the La Niña phase officially dissipating.
The cooling influence of La Niña on global temperatures has faded, and while the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) has entered a neutral phase, the heat may not let up.
"During the El Niño conditions in the early part of 2024, global average temperatures crossed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This threshold, set by the Paris Agreement, marked a significant level of warming. El Niño had a major influence on global temperatures then," said D S Pai, senior scientist at India Meteorological Department (IMD).
"Now, with neither El Niño nor La Niña active, global temperatures may not surpass the 2024 mark. However, 2025 could still end up being among the warmest years globally," he told TOI.
Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at University of Maryland and former IIT-Bombay faculty, said, "Even with a neutral ENSO, the year may continue to be warm. The absence of La Niña's moderating effect, along with warm ocean waters in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific means we should watch out for more heatwaves, intense pre-monsoon showers and possibly pre-monsoon cyclones."
La Niña is a climate pattern where the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes cooler. This can affect weather around the world — often leading to cooler global temperatures, stronger monsoons in India. The Pacific Ocean takes up more heat during La Niña and that tends to decelerate global warming. A neutral ENSO means neither La Niña nor El Niño is active.
The recent La Niña phase is also likely contributing to a dry winter in India this year. "Heatwaves followed quickly and it's expected to be a hot summer. Even with a neutral ENSO, the year may continue to be warm. As a result, this season is likely to have more heatwaves and maybe some heavy pre-monsoon rain. We have to watch out for cyclones as well," Murtugudde told TOI.
M Rajeevan, former secretary of the ministry of earth Sciences, said: "With the ongoing global warming trends, we should expect more heat and heatwaves in the absence of La Niña. India has already seen unseasonal heat surges in March and early April, with the IMD warning of above-normal maximum temperatures in large parts of the country."
He added: "The pre-monsoon season this year may see above-normal heat due to the absence of La Niña's cooling effect — especially when combined with the ongoing global warming. With more heat in the atmosphere, we are likely to see more intense thundershowers or convective rainfall in parts of the country, as witnessed recently in northeast India, Kolkata, Odisha, and central India. Higher temperatures mean more convection, as the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases with heating, leading to the formation of thunderstorm clouds."
Another IMD scientist said during a La Niña event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean were generally lower, which helped reduce global average temperatures. Last year, global temperatures remained above normal despite La Niña emerging towards the end of the year.
He said now that La Niña has ended and there's no cooling influence, it's possible that 2025 could see even higher temperatures. "But whether it crosses the 2024 levels or not remains to be seen," the scientist said.
Pune: Weather experts are of the view that India could be in for a hotter-than-usual summer and a possibly warmer post-monsoon season with the La Niña phase officially dissipating.
The cooling influence of La Niña on global temperatures has faded, and while the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) has entered a neutral phase, the heat may not let up.
"During the El Niño conditions in the early part of 2024, global average temperatures crossed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This threshold, set by the Paris Agreement, marked a significant level of warming. El Niño had a major influence on global temperatures then," said D S Pai, senior scientist at India Meteorological Department (IMD).
"Now, with neither El Niño nor La Niña active, global temperatures may not surpass the 2024 mark. However, 2025 could still end up being among the warmest years globally," he told TOI.
Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at University of Maryland and former IIT-Bombay faculty, said, "Even with a neutral ENSO, the year may continue to be warm. The absence of La Niña's moderating effect, along with warm ocean waters in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific means we should watch out for more heatwaves, intense pre-monsoon showers and possibly pre-monsoon cyclones."
La Niña is a climate pattern where the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes cooler. This can affect weather around the world — often leading to cooler global temperatures, stronger monsoons in India. The Pacific Ocean takes up more heat during La Niña and that tends to decelerate global warming. A neutral ENSO means neither La Niña nor El Niño is active.
The recent La Niña phase is also likely contributing to a dry winter in India this year. "Heatwaves followed quickly and it's expected to be a hot summer. Even with a neutral ENSO, the year may continue to be warm. As a result, this season is likely to have more heatwaves and maybe some heavy pre-monsoon rain. We have to watch out for cyclones as well," Murtugudde told TOI.
M Rajeevan, former secretary of the ministry of earth Sciences, said: "With the ongoing global warming trends, we should expect more heat and heatwaves in the absence of La Niña. India has already seen unseasonal heat surges in March and early April, with the IMD warning of above-normal maximum temperatures in large parts of the country."
He added: "The pre-monsoon season this year may see above-normal heat due to the absence of La Niña's cooling effect — especially when combined with the ongoing global warming. With more heat in the atmosphere, we are likely to see more intense thundershowers or convective rainfall in parts of the country, as witnessed recently in northeast India, Kolkata, Odisha, and central India. Higher temperatures mean more convection, as the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases with heating, leading to the formation of thunderstorm clouds."
Another IMD scientist said during a La Niña event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean were generally lower, which helped reduce global average temperatures. Last year, global temperatures remained above normal despite La Niña emerging towards the end of the year.
He said now that La Niña has ended and there's no cooling influence, it's possible that 2025 could see even higher temperatures. "But whether it crosses the 2024 levels or not remains to be seen," the scientist said.