ESA downgrades 2024 YR4 asteroid's chance to hit Earth

In a major relief to sky gazers, the European Space Agency (ESA) has lowered the chances of asteroid 2024 YR hitting Earth to almost 0

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In a major relief to sky gazers, the European Space Agency (ESA) has lowered the chances of asteroid 2024 YR hitting Earth to almost 0.

The field size asteroid 2024 YR, billed as ‘City Killer’ because of its size originally had 1.2% chance of hitting the Earth.

The ESA later increased the asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth to 2.8% and NASA upgraded it to 3.1%.

In the latest updates, the ESA now says of asteroid 2024 YR has just 0.001% chance of hitting Earth, adding that the threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale was now at zero — after hitting level three out of a possible 10 last week, according to news agency AFP.

The impact date would have been December 22, 2032 — but it is now extremely likely the asteroid will simply zoom past Earth.

The 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024 by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. In terms of its size, it is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet or 40 and 100 metres wide.

Despite the plummeting risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will still observe the asteroid in the coming months, the ESA said.

Scientists had emphasised that even if the asteroid had been heading our way, Earth is now capable of fighting back.

In the first test of our planetary defences, NASA's DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid's trajectory in 2022 by smashing a spacecraft into it.

Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defence office, told AFP that observing the asteroid — then ruling out a direct hit — was "a very exciting and educational exercise".

Praising the early detection of the asteroid, he emphasised that "there is still ample room for improvement".

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