When the UPA was in power from 2004 to 2014 the first five years saw a very large number of important policy changes. Some worked and others didn’t.

The second five years from 2009 to 2014 witnessed a phenomenon that came to be called ‘policy paralysis’. Basically, the government, despite the goodwill it enjoyed until 2012, simply froze in its tracks.

Oh, to be sure, there were bits and pieces here and there. But, overall on economic policy, it started treading the water because the continuation of the sharp growth spurt of 2006-09 was taken so much for granted that no great new initiative was undertaken.

Until things started going dreadfully wrong in the last quarter of 2012, there was an air of smug complacency. Then in 2013 the balloon went up. Throughout that year it looked as if we would have a repeat of the 1991 crisis.

Exactly the same thing now seems to have happened to the NDA government. What struck the Congress then now appears to have struck the BJP. It has frozen in its tracks.

Look back over the last nine months and you will see what I am saying. There hasn’t been a single major change or announcement of a new direction. It’s policy paralysis version 2.

True, the Budget’s income tax announcement exempting people earning up to ₹1 lakh a month from paying tax is a big change but that’s about all that’s happened. And it’s barely a policy. The rest has been a series of tweaks.

The reasons why

When you talk to people about this palpable loss of direction or masterly inactivity or inertia or complacency or doldrums, they come up with many possible reasons. It’s useful to list these and see if, together, they can explain the growing sense of nothing is happening.

The following listing is not in a descending order of magnitude and importance. It’s just a list and you can choose the one you think is most likely.

The one most often discussed is that Modi is tired. He has been at his job for 23 years, with 12 as chief minister and nearly 13 as prime minister. That’s bound not only to take a toll on intensity but also energy.

Next comes the normal tendency to sit back and govern with a light touch. You don’t feel the need to take any sharp turns because there’s no need to.

There is then the widespread impression that much of the reforms that are needed are now being guided by the RSS whose understanding of economic policy is basically socialist. This has been most apparent in the privatisation policy.

One recent explanation or reason is the Trump factor and the resulting uncertainty. This is doubtless an important factor but it’s been there only since January or perhaps late December. What about the five months before that?

A fifth excuse is that much of the big stuff has already been done and that now it’s the time for fine tuning. Well, the question then is if the two are mutually exclusive. Can’t both be done simultaneously?

Yet another explanation is that it’s the non-economic reforms that are engaging the government’s attention. But remember: many of these were done alongside big economic reforms.

A related aspect is that economic reforms don’t win elections the way the non-economic ones do. And this government is so totally focused on winning various elections from assemblies to the municipal ones that it has taken its eyes off the economy ball.

Finally, there is the conversation stopping reason, unlikely as it may seem now: Modi will retire when he turns 75 next year because the RSS wants him to and that he is merely keeping the seat warm for his successor now.

Where non-economic reforms are concerned I have a forlorn hope that the focus will shift from social reforms to administrative ones. These are the long neglected reforms of Indian democracy and governance.

As a result, babudom has become India’s biggest enemy. Deleting Article 311 of the Constitution which makes it virtually impossible to sack government employees, should at least be considered and discussed. If waqf reform is important, so is this.

Bad for governance

Spokespersons for the government will deny all this with varying degrees of vehemence. They may well be right. But that’s not the point, which is that people are beginning to wonder about the growing perception of standstill.

This perception, if left unreversed, could have the same effect as it did on the UPA government in 2013. People will stop believing the truth and start believing the myth. Then no amount of tom-tomming the achievements will have any effect.