BJP surge in Delhi marks critical juncture for Arvind Kejriwal, AAP

The BJP is leading in 48 of Delhi's 70 assembly seats, while AAP is ahead in 23. As of the latest updates, former Delhi chief minister and AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal, along with deputy CM Manish Sisodia, had both given up the fight in their respective assembly segments. Among the key AAP leaders, only Delhi chief minister Atishi has retained her seat, though by a margin of just over 3,500 votes, having trailed for much of the count.

Kejriwal is behind Parvesh Verma by 4,089 votes, and Sisodia lost to Tarvinder Singh Marwah by 675 votes. Several senior AAP figures, such as Saurabh Bharadwaj in Greater Kailash 1 (who lost to Shikha Rai) and Somnath Bharti in Malviya Nagar (who lost to Satish Upadhyay), are also facing defeat.

In contrast, BJP candidates performed strongly across various segments. Kapil Mishra won Karawal Nagar by 44,857 votes after 17 rounds of counting, while Tilak Ram Gupta led Tri Nagar by 8,339 votes. Other BJP candidates, including Sanjay Goel (Shahdara), Chandan Chaudhary (Sangam Vihar), Bajrang Shukla (Kirari), and Kartar Singh Tanwar (Chhatarpur), are also in the lead.

According to the latest trends, AAP candidates are comfortably ahead in Chandni Chowk, Matia Mahal, Babarpur, Seelampur, Okhla, and Ballimaran, apart from Mustafabad. Five years ago, AAP had won all seven of these seats by significant margins, though party leaders had admitted before the elections that these margins were expected to shrink.

This election marks a critical moment for both Kejriwal and AAP. With the BJP on the brink of forming a government in Delhi after 27 years, the results signify a rejection of Kejriwal’s leadership and jeopardise AAP’s national ambitions.

Despite the AAP’s success in Punjab (largely at the Congress' expense) and securing two seats in Gujarat, its national footprint remains limited. The party’s focus on other states, particularly during its second term in Delhi, led the BJP to claim that AAP neglected the city, particularly its infrastructure. This has likely alienated Delhi’s middle class, who are dissatisfied with AAP’s governance, particularly in relation to air and water pollution and the condition of the Yamuna.

The Congress views the AAP's decline as essential to its revival in Delhi, once a stronghold for the party. However, within the INDIA bloc, some members feel the Congress should have aligned with AAP to challenge the BJP. The Congress, on the other hand, insists that the AAP rejected the idea of an alliance, with Kejriwal announcing all 70 candidates well in advance.

While the Congress vote share has dropped significantly from over 40 per cent before 2013, it may have played a decisive role in several segments. By splitting the anti-BJP vote, the Congress may have indirectly helped the BJP secure victories in multiple seats. The precise impact of the Congress' role will only be clear once detailed vote share data is available. For the Congress, it’s a bittersweet moment, as it has now done to AAP what AAP did to it in Gujarat, and similarly, what the BJP did to AAP in 2013.

Though both parties contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together, they have been rivals in Delhi since AAP’s political debut in 2013. Throughout the campaign, they often exchanged barbs, with the BJP focusing on continuing AAP’s welfare schemes, promising "double-engine development", and targeting AAP over corruption.

Delhi BJP president Virendra Sachdeva expressed confidence that the party would form the government, stating that the next chief minister would be from the BJP, though the final decision would rest with the central leadership. He noted that the results were in line with expectations and predicted a decisive mandate for the BJP.

“Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, Delhi will progress alongside the rest of the country. I can confidently say that AAP will be eliminated from the national capital,” he said after offering prayers at the Hanuman temple in Connaught Place.

AAP faced several challenges in this election, including anti-incumbency and internal struggles owing the prolonged imprisonment of senior leaders. The party also struggled to maintain the support of the middle class, who felt disconnected from its welfare policies thanks to deteriorating infrastructure and civic amenities.

The BJP capitalised on these concerns, promising to continue AAP’s welfare initiatives while introducing new measures such as a Rs 2,500 monthly allowance for women and Ayushman Bharat with a Rs 10 lakh insurance cover for Delhi residents. These promises were especially appealing to the poorer sections of society.

AAP's victory in the 2022 Delhi municipal corporation elections turned problematic as it struggled to launch significant projects owing to a deadlock in the House. This led to dirty and waterlogged streets, broken roads, poor water supply, and overflowing sewers, further damaging the party’s image.

After holding office for two consecutive terms, AAP could no longer deflect blame for governance failures. The BJP seized the opportunity, highlighting unfulfilled promises such as the failure to improve infrastructure and tackle pollution. This anti-incumbency sentiment played a crucial role in the political shift.

The BJP focused on local issues directly affecting Delhi residents, such as air pollution, traffic congestion, urban housing, sanitation, and public safety. The party engaged with resident welfare associations (RWAs) and market associations to address community-specific concerns. A key aspect of the BJP’s campaign was its ‘double-engine government’ pitch, promoting central government schemes such as Ayushman Bharat, PM Awas Yojana, and Jal Jeevan Mission.

Voter outreach played a significant role, particularly within the Purvanchali community, which constitutes nearly 30 per cent of Delhi’s population, and among slum dwellers. PM Modi personally distributed 1,678 flats to residents of JJ (jhuggi-jhopdi) clusters. The BJP also ran a highly aggressive digital campaign.

Perhaps the greatest irony of AAP’s downfall is that it now faces the same corruption allegations that helped bring it to power in 2013. Kejriwal had campaigned against UPA-era corruption scandals and the Nirbhaya case, both of which contributed to the Congress’ decline. However, after 12 years in power, the Kejriwal government is now embroiled in similar allegations.

The most damaging of these is the alleged liquor policy scam, which has led to the arrest of several senior AAP leaders, including Kejriwal and Sisodia. Though the case is still under investigation, the scandal has severely damaged AAP’s reputation.

Both the BJP and Congress have also targeted the 'sheesh mahal' controversy, highlighting Kejriwal’s lavish residence renovation as a symbol of hypocrisy. These allegations have significantly eroded public trust, further amplified by AI-generated content, daily posters, and memes aimed at discrediting AAP.