Lowest turnout since 2008: What it means for AAP, BJP

NEW DELHI: The final voter turnout for the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections stands at 60.44%, a reduction from the 62.6% recorded in 2020. In fact, this is the lowest voter turnout recorded since 2008, when this number stood at 57.60%. 

Historically, voter turnout has been an unreliable predictor of electoral outcomes. In the last six state elections—Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Haryana, and Maharashtra—higher turnout didn’t necessarily signal anti-incumbency. While Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh saw incumbent governments ousted with a slight increase in voter participation, Haryana and Maharashtra delivered pro-incumbency verdicts despite similar trends.  

Delhi’s turnout patterns require a nuanced analysis. Traditionally, lower-income voters are more likely to vote, which could favour AAP, given its strong support among poorer sections. However, the RSS has proven highly effective in mobilising BJP supporters, particularly in middle- and upper-middle-class localities where turnout is also significant.

Early data suggests AAP strongholds, like east Delhi, witnessed high Dalit voter participation, while upper-caste voter turnout in BJP-leaning areas ranged from 58% to 62%. The Purvanchali vote, crucial in previous AAP victories, appears split this time.  

Women voters remain a decisive factor. Since 2014, they have swung elections through their support for welfare schemes, prompting parties to roll out cash incentives. In Delhi, female voters have historically backed the BJP in Lok Sabha elections but AAP in the assembly polls, making this contest unpredictable.  

A wildcard remains the Congress. With less than 5% vote share in 2020, any resurgence could eat into AAP’s support base. The nervousness within AAP’s ranks suggests the party is concerned about a potential vote shift. While voter turnout offers clues, it does not guarantee a clear picture of the final verdict.