Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, Donald Trump is once again the President of the United States of America. He had been president between January 2017 and January 2021. By any reckoning it was a tumultuous presidency. As to his second coming, there are three overlapping aspects. One, the world and Trump. Two, America and Trump. And three, India and Trump. It can be argued that this is true of all incoming presidents. But his reputation for rudely shoving aside the accepted norms of conducting policy sets Trump apart.

He has always questioned the received wisdom. Be it migration into the US or taxation or trade policy or China, Russia, Europe, he has insisted on his America First policy. Fall in line or agree to fall out with me, has been his signature tune. He threatens first and then resorts to diplomacy. He also thinks there is nothing under the sun over which a deal can’t be reached. The Abraham Accords of 2020 are a spectacular example of this. His offer to Greenland to buy it sounds absurd now but could well go through because very few Greenlanders need to agree. Their country is crucial to US security. Meanwhile, he has been able to persuade Israel to stop killing Palestinians three weeks before his being sworn in as president. As to Europe, it needs to start thinking afresh about its security. The American guarantee could be hugely diluted as Trump turns inward. His promise to show China its place on trade is a major concern because China is now the biggest supplier of all sorts of manufactured products to the world. Trump has threatened China with a whopping 60 per cent increase in tariffs. China is bound to retaliate, as will US businesses based in China. So the world needs to gird its loins on the economic front.

Then there is America itself. Trump has basically reinvented the Right and cast the old Republican Party’s notions of the Right aside. His new party is belligerent on everything: illegal immigration, woke education and senseless taxation, trade and fiscal policies to name just a few areas. The soft, permissive liberal approach that America was known for, and which has become the definition of democracy, is likely to give way to an unprecedented degree of muscularity. The American working and managerial classes can look forward to churning that benefits them in the form of more and better paid jobs and a greater voice in their communities, not to mention the reining in of finance.

Finally, the relationship with India. India will have to adopt commercial deal making as the main instrument for dealing with Trump. Trump wants a sharp tariff reduction on imports from America. In 2025 that will be the hinge on which the relationship swings. The UPA government’s nuclear deal, too, could be revived but that’s going to be a very long shot. For the rest, India has to wait and watch with fingers crossed, not least because it could become a dumping ground for Chinese companies that get hit with Trump’s tariffs. Ultimately, the only certainty now is uncertainty.