Indian Railways reveals ticket confirmation formula: Here's how waiting list tickets are processed

Train passengers often face confusion when issued waiting list tickets, uncertain about whether their tickets will be confirmed. This uncertainty complicates travel planning, especially for office workers concerned about coordinating holidays, as predicting the confirmation threshold can be challenging.


The problem intensifies during festival seasons when train ticket demand peaks and waiting lists can exceed 500 in some cases. During such times, the chances of securing a confirmed ticket drops significantly.



While several websites offer predictions on ticket confirmation, their accuracy can sometimes falter.

To address this, Indian Railways has revealed details about ticket confirmation probabilities, including how waiting list tickets are processed.

Waiting tickets are confirmed in two ways: 

1. Normal Cancellations: On average, 21% of passengers cancel their reservations after booking, creating a 21% chance of confirmation. For instance, in a sleeper coach with 72 seats, approximately 14 seats may become available. Additionally, around 4-5% of passengers who hold tickets do not travel, increasing the probability of confirmation to roughly 25%, or 18 seats per coach.


2. Emergency Quota: Indian Railways reserves 10% of seats under the emergency quota for individuals with urgent needs, such as medical emergencies. If only 5% of the emergency quota is utilised, the remaining 5% increases the likelihood of confirming waiting list tickets.

Example calculation 

Consider a train with 10 sleeper coaches. If each coach can potentially confirm 18 waiting list tickets, a total of 180 tickets might be confirmed across all sleeper coaches. This formula similarly applies to third AC, second AC, and first AC coaches.

By combining cancellations and unused emergency quota allocations, passengers can gauge the likelihood of their waiting list tickets being confirmed, offering greater clarity and improving travel planning.