Why are Britain’s winters now so wet? Experts explain

The UK could be set for another washout winter this year, following 2023's record as the eighth-wettest winter in British history.

Last month was relatively dry, despite Storm Bert, with just 68% of the normal November rain - but the trend for wetter winters is very real, the Met Office told Yahoo News.

The rain is set to get worse along with other effects such as dry-but-stormy summers, which could lead to increased flooding).

Yahoo News spoke to Met Office spokesperson Andrea Bishop about why winters are now so wet, what is driving the trend and what this might mean for life in Britain.

Why are winters getting wetter?

Climate change is driving the trend for warmer, wetter winters, and also means (generally speaking) that British summers are becoming drier, Bishop explained.

"Although rainfall observations show large variability in annual, seasonal and decadal rainfall, it has generally become wetter, particularly during winter," Bishop said.

Five of the 10 wettest years for the UK, in the recorded series from 1836, have occurred in the 21st Century, according to Met Office statistics.

Last year, October and December were among the top 10 wettest months, and overall 2023 was the seventh-wettest year on record.

“Climate projections indicate that on average, winters will become wetter and summers drier, though natural variability will mean we will continue to see individual years that don’t follow this trend,” Bishop said.

The reason that climate change brings wetter weather is that warmer air can hold more moisture: roughly 7% more per 1C of warming.

“This can lead to more intense and frequent downpours,” Bishop explained. “A recent attribution study has shown that climate change has made rainfall during storms more intense through the autumn and winter.”

How will other seasons be affected?

Climate change is affecting other seasons too, Bishop explained, but you should not expect drier summers to mean wall-to-wall sunshine.

“In autumn, the UK will likely see more days with rainfall totals over 50mm, particularly for western areas of the UK,” Bishop said.

Summers will become drier overall, but very heavy rain will increase, she said. "There will likely be future increases in the intensity of heavy summer rainfall events."

The Met Office said rainfall from an event that typically occurs once every two years in summer is expected to increase by around 25% - meaning more frequent flooding.

This trend is expected to increase further in a warming climate.

What effects will this have on daily life?

One surprising impact of the changing weather will be a significant increase in the amount of slugs in Britain’s gardens, as warm wet weather means they can breed before fledgling birds feed on them, said horticulturalist Claire Mitchell.

British towns should also expect much more flooding, said meteorologists and TV weather presenter Sara Thornton, who runs the digital weather service Weather Trending.

Thornton said: “Generally, it’s bad news. With warmer, wetter winters comes more flooding and impacts to people’s homes and businesses. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, and so rainfall events are ever more potent.

“Flood defences are expensive to build and maintain and not always effective, as we saw in Worcestershire when water sluiced down Tenbury Wells’ High Street two weeks ago.

"Eventually, there may have to be difficult conversations over where flood prevention efforts should continue and if there are areas that may be too badly and too often impacted to protect long-term as our climate continues to warm.”

Fellow meteorologist John Hammond, who co-runs Weather Trending, said there will be negative effects for farmers, too.

“There are many losers in the natural world,” said Hammond.

“We’ve seen how badly farming can be impacted by these wetter winters, with flooded fields and soil erosion, and there will be more of that. Planting is then severely affected and that can lead to yield issues later in the growing season, something that was a major problem this year.

"There are also more pests and plant diseases in a milder winter without hard frosts to knock them away.”