Maharashtra Diary: Can the MVA revive for another battle?

The assembly election results in Maharashtra seemed to indicate a wave for the Mahayuti that nobody saw coming. There are plenty and more reasons to doubt the official outcome, and enough circumstantial evidence to validate the scepticism that this mandate was manufactured by unfair means.

In the last three months leading up to the elections, the Mahayuti government went on a maniacal spending spree, raining pre-election sops, of which one in particular (the Ladki Bahin Yojana) made headlines for a good long while.

Before it began to rain these doles—for which the Election Commission of India (ECI) obligingly gave it more time by postponing the elections—the Mahayuti government was looking in all sorts of trouble. Infighting in the ruling coalition and the government’s unpopularity were open secrets.

Had the popular verdict not been so outrageously contrary to expectations, it might have passed without demur. Given how things looked before the polls, even the Mahayuti could barely believe the results.

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For the first time since the formation of the state in 1960, the Maharashtra legislative assembly won’t have a leader of the opposition—because none of the parties other than the ruling triumvirate bagged the minimum 29 seats in a House of 288. The BJP, with the full assistance of the RSS, won 132 seats, its highest ever tally in Maharashtra. The Mahayuti cornered 48 per cent of the votes, five percentage points more than in the Lok Sabha.

Did the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde settle the question of the ‘real Shiv Sena’? If you believe the poll figures, he certainly polled more votes—12.4 per cent to the SS(UBT)’s 10 per cent. Ajit Pawar’s NCP sprang a surprise by polling less votes (9 per cent) than Sharad Pawar’s NCP (11.3 per cent) but ending up winning 41 seats against Sharad Pawar’s 10.

Smaller players such as the Raj Thackeray-led MNS, the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and other sub-regional outfits such as the Shetkari Sanghatna were summarily knocked out of the ring.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), however, polled 33 per cent of the votes, a cool 2.5 crore in numbers. While the severity of the setback cannot be underplayed, there are indications that despite having less than 50 MLAs in the House, the coalition can still mount serious challenges.

This will, however, depend on a number of factors, the most important being unity. The BJP can be trusted to go after the MVA’s remaining leaders to break their organisations from within. Allurements to defect are a given. Can the MVA and its MLAs withstand such pressure?

The silver lining lies in the way the vote shares are stacked—should the regional and sub-regional players decide to strengthen an unusual but not improbable alliance in the future. The combined vote share of the Indian National Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar)—both contested fewer seats than the BJP—hovers around 24 per cent in the Vidhan Sabha elections, just behind BJP’s 26.77 per cent.

With the Shiv Sena(UBT) having polled nearly 10 per cent and anti-BJP votes for ‘Others’ at nearly 14 per cent, the combined strength of the opposition on the ground looks formidable enough. Despite the number of seats going down, their social base is still robust to build upon.

For the MVA, the immediate challenge is to overcome the setback, get back to the drawing board and craft a strategy to put up a good showing in the local body elections, delayed by three years. While local elections do provide opportunities to weave new social alliances, traditionally, ruling parties do well due to financial heft. One reason why the Mahayuti will surely hold local elections in a hurry.

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Of the three main parties in the MVA, the Congress and the NCP, led by Sharad Pawar, are natural allies. The Congress, which won 13 of the 18 Lok Sabha seats it contested barely six months ago, has seen its votes plunge by over five per cent in the Vidhan Sabha election. Yet, it looks better placed to take on the BJP in the state, with new ideas, an inclusive manifesto and a more robust stand in favour of the marginalised and minorities.

With roots in every region of Maharashtra, it is better placed to take on the BJP–RSS than others. Organisationally, it is perceived to be weaker than Sharad Pawar’s NCP, which lends heft to those in favour of the two parties merging.

Maharashtra may have swung in favour of the BJP but undermining the state’s progressive ideals will be no mean task. Civil society groups, grassroot workers and liberal voters continue to bank on the Congress to get its act together. For a start, the party could reopen its offices in the heartland and hinterland. Open house for the masses to come, sit, drink tea and discuss local issues is all that it will take to infuse enthusiasm, say many supporters.

Sharad Pawar’s advanced years and declining health might have played a part in almost the entire sugar belt tilting in favour of Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar in the Vidhan Sabha polls. With third-generation loyalists yet to find their feet and all but a few of Sharad Pawar’s loyalists having joined his nephew, the party does face a crisis. Whether Pawar Sr’s 10 MLAs, and indeed other MVA members, stay resolute is a matter of concern. Some may well defect to the Mahayuti for the power and perks that come with it.

Let it not go unmarked that the NCP(SP) polled 12 per cent vote share, more than Ajit Pawar, even though that did not translate into seats. A merger with the Congress will arithmetically restore some electoral balance. The only barrier on that path is the Pawar family’s proximity to the Adani Group.

Uddhav Thackeray also has a window open—with 10 per cent votes, 20 MLAs and 6 MPS, he could still regain the regional flavour of his party, now that the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions are in the grip of the BJP. Another face-saving positive for Uddhav is that UBT won 10 of its 20 seats in some of its citadels in Mumbai.

To keep a resurgent BJP at bay, the major challenge would be to retain control over the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in the coming elections. It promises to be down and dirty, with indications that the Sangh Parivar would go all out against the Thackerays, a final retribution for standing up and walking away in 2019.

With Raj Thackeray’s MNS effectively done and dusted, the Shinde Sena unlikely to come out of the BJP’s shadow, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP not perceived as a regional outfit yet, Uddhav Thackeray is better placed to lead the regional rally and reinvent the party.

His principal ideological dilemma is how to reimagine his version of Hindutva nationalism while still being part of the INDIA alliance. He could fall back upon linguistic or Marathi sub-national identity, which led to the birth of the original Shiv Sena in the mills and chawls of 1960s-Mumbai.

The Marathi manoos versus the ‘outsider Gujarati’ is a battle quietly raging in the country’s financial capital as Modi-Shah divert industries and investments from Maharashtra to Gujarat. With the BJP in the driver’s seat and Eknath Shinde firmly put in his place, it won’t be easy for either Shinde or Ajit Pawar to keep their respective flocks happy for long—which will open another window of possibility for the Thackerays.