Is Lebanon ceasefire destined for failure as Israel threatens to escalate?

Israel has warned that it would expand its attacks and include targets linked to the Lebanese state if the fragile truce with Hezbollah collapses.

The warning on 3 December followed Hezbollah's launch of two mortars at a disputed area along the Lebanese, Syrian, and Israeli border on Monday, accusing Israel of repeated ceasefire violations.

In response, Israel carried out airstrikes on over 20 sites across Lebanon, reports Xinhua news agency. Speaking to military commanders at the northern border, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz declared that any breach of the truce would trigger "a maximum response and zero tolerance".

"If we return to war, we will act with greater force, penetrate deeper, and, most importantly, there will no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon," Katz said.

During a cabinet meeting held in the northern Israeli city of Nahariya, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed the warning, stressing that Israel could resume full-scale fighting if the ceasefire fails.

"We are currently in a ceasefire, I emphasise — a ceasefire, not the end of the war," Netanyahu said. "We are enforcing this ceasefire with an iron fist, responding to every violation— whether minor or severe. We are committed to the ceasefire, but we will not tolerate any breaches from the other side."

Meanwhile, a spokesperson from Qatar's ministry of foreign affairs said the country's mediation efforts for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel remain suspended.

"Qatar maintains its suspension of mediation efforts pending both parties' seriousness in returning to the negotiation table," Majed bin Mohammed Al Ansari said during a weekly media briefing on Tuesday.

Al Ansari said the suspension applies "solely to the mediation process itself," while regional communications and collaborations continue unabated, reports Xinhua news agency.

Despite the suspension of mediation, Al Ansari highlighted Qatar's ongoing commitment to de-escalation and humanitarian support for Gaza. "Officials are engaged in daily communications with counterparts...The focus remains on delivering aid to those in need in Gaza and supporting the ongoing de-escalation in Lebanon," he said.

The ceasefire, which took effect on 27 November, aimed to halt the deadly cross-border violence between Hezbollah and Israel, which erupted on 7 October 2023.