What should Memphis expect this winter? Here's what recent weather patterns tell us

Even though we haven't quite hit winter yet, it sure is beginning to feel like it in the Mid-South.

With this cold weather comes the debate of whether winter this year will be harsh or not. Generally speaking, Memphis hasn't had extremely cold or wet winters frequently in the past decade. In that 10 year period, a majority of the really cold and wet weather all happened before 2020, save for the snow storm in January 2021.

A cold beginning to December

According to the National Weather Service, the beginning of December has a 70%-80% chance to be below normal temperatures. The weather service is predicting that temperatures will fall into the 20s in the early mornings through Wednesday, Dec. 4.

The forecaster's discussion wrote, "A cold front will bring colder weather (Thanksgiving), which is expected to remain in place through this weekend and into next week. Lows could drop below 30 for several days starting Friday."

The weather service's outlook for Dec. 8 through Dec. 14 shoes temperatures returning to normal for December for a break from the frigid early December temperatures we will see. Despite these colder temperatures, this winter will likely not be one of the most frigid on record.

With this year being a La Niña year, it is possible for winter to be warmer than usual in the South. La Niña can cause colder and stormier weather than average conditions across North America, but for the Southern U.S., conditions are typically wetter and warmer.

The last La Niña event lasted from 2020 to 2023. During this time, the average monthly temperature was:

• December: 46.90 degrees

• January: 42.99 degrees

• February: 42.87 degrees

• March: 54.73 degrees

The average monthly precipitation during the same period was:

• December: 5.42 inches

• January: 5.83 inches

• February: 5.58 inches

• March: 8.40 inches

How cold does it usually get in Memphis over winter?

Memphis has a fairly consistent temperature for the winter months. While winter is from Dec. 21 or 22 to Mar. 20 or 21, winter weather can be felt outside of these dates. Therefore, December through March will be measured in full for the data.

December, January and February have similar temperature averages ranging between 41 degrees and 47 degrees. The overall average temperature in December over the past 10 years is 46.12, or .78 degrees cooler than the average for La Niña.

January has an average temperature of 41.20, 1.79 degrees cooler than the average for La Niña. February has an average temperature of 45.55, 2.68 degrees warmer than the average for La Niña. March is the outlier with general warmer weather with 54.32 degrees as the average temperature, 0.41 degrees cooler than the average for La Niña.

For the most part, La Niña brings about warmer temperature for the Mid-South, but only by a few degrees.

So, Memphis can likely expect temperatures to bounce around in the 40s for the next few months for the average temperature. If we take the monthly average temperature from the past five years, the warmest number was 57.6 degrees in March 2020, and the lowest was 36.3 in January 2024.

It can be expected that the weather throws a few curveball days at Memphis, but for the most part, temperatures should be in the 40s for December through February and in the 50s in March.

How much precipitation does Memphis get in winter?

In Memphis, precipitation during winter, which includes rain, snow and ice, doesn't usually exceed about eight inches. In the past 10 years, neither December nor January saw precipitation measurements above eight inches. February only had two years above eight inches, and March had four years above.

Since winter 2019-2020, there were only three years where a month got above eight inches of precipitation in winter. The first year was March 2020, the second was March 2021, and the third was March 2023.

During La Niña, Memphis has higher monthly precipitation averages for three of four months. December is 0.10 inches more, January is 1.18 inches more, February is 0.50 inches less and March is 0.71 inches more.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis winter weather: Will there be snow this year? What to expect