JALANDHAR: As the Punjab Congress grapples with its loss in the Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak bypolls, blaming Shiromani Akali Dal’s (SAD) absence that made its voters shift to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it forgets that a weakened SAD has played both a bane and a boon for it, highlighting the evolving complexities of voter behaviour in the state.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress benefited from Sikh voters traditionally loyal to SAD, who shifted allegiance to counter the BJP’s rise.This trend, particularly visible in rural Sikh-majority areas, helped the Congress win seats such as Ludhiana, Khadoor Sahib, and Faridkot.
Punjab Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring and state’s opposition leader Partap Singh Bajwa have now admitted that SAD’s reduced influence (after losing significant ground in recent elections) has benefited AAP, undermining their party’s position in the recent bypolls.
The SAD had lost security deposit on 10 of Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP lost Ludhiana, Patiala and Ferozepur by thin margins and was number three in the last two seats.
Warring’s 21,000-odd-vote victory over BJP’s Ravneet Bittu in Ludhiana could only be due to the Sikh majority of its rural assembly segments, a pattern with the other seats that went to the Congress.
How a strong Akali or Panthic candidate could have hurt the Congress was evident in Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot, where it dropped from 2019’s first position to third.
The BJP, on the other hand, saw an 18.5% vote share in the Lok Sabha elections, consolidating support among upper-caste Hindu voters. This polarisation, however, triggered a counter-polarisation among Sikhs and Dalits, who rallied behind the Congress in a bid to defeat the saffron party.
Dalit apprehensions about constitutional changes further hurt the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) performance, while Sikh voters opted for the Congress as a second choice amid dissatisfaction with both AAP and SAD.
Former Congress legislator Rajinder Beri pointed out that urban and rural support base of the Congress included a mix of Sikhs, scheduled castes (SCs), and a smaller percentage of traditional Hindu loyalists. This mix helped Congress secure victories like Barnala in the bypolls, albeit due to AAP’s internal fractures.
Sikh discontent drives AAP growth
Sikh discontent with the SAD, stemming from corruption, drug abuse, and leadership dissatisfaction with the Badals, provided AAP with an entry point in Punjab. AAP further capitalised on Sikh issues and positioned itself as an alternative to both the SAD and the Congress.
However, Sikh voters’ anti-Congress sentiment, rooted in the 1984 pogrom, persists, making the Congress a reluctant choice for many, driven by the need to defeat the BJP or other rivals.
This shifting voter base underscores the fluid political landscape in Punjab, where parties struggle to navigate entrenched identities, regional grievances, and evolving priorities.