Alongside several other major world powers developing new nuclear projects, Canada plans to rapidly expand its nuclear power sector to contribute heavily to the country’s energy demand. Nuclear power contributes around 15 percent of Canada’s energy at present. However, with plans to develop several new nuclear facilities, this figure is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades. The industry had stagnated for several decades due to public concerns around safety, as well as the high costs of building new nuclear plants, but a 2023 Ipsos poll showed that 55 percent of Canadians now support nuclear energy.
The 2023 Federal Budget showed strong support for nuclear power, including a refundable Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean electricity and a 30 percent ITC for clean technology manufacturing. The budget also backed nuclear power through several other initiatives, including an extension of reduced tax rates, funding from the Canada Infrastructure Bank, cash for the regulatory authority, and half a billion dollars in SMR project investment.
The province of Ontario announced plans in 2023 to develop Canada’s first Small Modular Reactor (SMR) project. The Darlington new nuclear site is expected to host four SMRs to provide a total output of 1,200 MW, enough to power around 1.2 million homes. Pending regulatory approval, Ontario Power Generation hopes construction will begin on its first SMR unit in early 2025, to become operational by 2029. OPG expects the other three SMRs to come online by the mid-2030s. The plan aligns with the government's aims to decarbonise the economy and increase the province’s green energy capacity, with plans under development to mandate a net-zero power grid nationwide by 2035.
Bruce Power also plans to expand its existing Ontario nuclear facility to become one of the largest in the world, adding 4.8 GW. The company submitted its initial project description in August, as part of its pre-development work for the proposed expansion. The Minister of Energy and Electrification Stephen Lecce stated, “As we look to expand energy generation, our government remains committed to nuclear refurbishments, a clean energy source that well positions Ontario as a clean energy leader in the world. Lecce added, “Ontario is forecast to double its electricity grid by 2050. Bruce Power plays a vital role in expanding our electricity system.”
There have been several other advancements in Canada’s nuclear power industry over the last year. The federal government announced an investment of $9.74 in nine SMR research projects in October. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan’s utility SaskPower created a nuclear subsidiary called SaskNuclear in September, aiming to advance the province’s SMR project through the regulatory and licensing process.
The U.S. has also announced big plans for its nuclear power industry in recent years, with several large-scale conventional and SMR developments. However, many of these projects have stalled due to the global shortage of enriched uranium. Nuclear energy-producing countries worldwide have long relied on Russia for the supply of High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU). Until recently, TENEX, part of the Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom, was the only company to sell HALEU commercially. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy, the U.S. established its own HALEU production industry, with Centrus Energy Corp producing the country’s first 20 kilos of the fuel in November 2023.
The Canadian energy firm NexGen is now developing a project that could make Canada the world’s biggest producer of uranium over the coming decade, knocking Kazakhstan off the top spot. Due to the shortage of uranium, several countries started looking for alternative suppliers of the power source to fuel the new nuclear era. NexGen’s mine in the uranium-rich Athabasca Basin of northern Saskatchewan is now valued at almost $4 billion. The company hopes it will be operational by 2028. Other companies are also exploring the region, as well as reopening dormant mines, thanks to the revived interest in Canadian uranium.
Almost two dozen countries, including Canada, committed to tripling their nuclear energy output by 2050 at the COP28 climate summit last year, and Canada’s uranium could be key to achieving this. With COP29 currently underway, we can expect even more ambitious nuclear energy pledges from a range of countries. Canada is the world’s second-biggest producer of uranium at present, contributing around 13 percent of the global output. NexGen predicts that once its mine is operational, this figure will increase to 25 percent.
Thanks to the renewed public support for nuclear power, as well as pressure to support a green transition, Canada is currently seeing a nuclear resurgence. Several conventional and SMR developments are expected to be established across the country in the coming decades, supported by federal funding in SMR research and development. Meanwhile, thanks to the increase in nuclear development worldwide and a shortage of enriched uranium, Canada could soon overtake Kazakhstan to become the largest supplier of uranium globally.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
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