RIL shares deliver zero returns on YTD basis; outlook, technicals and more 

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) have delivered zero returns this year. The large cap stock ended at Rs 1,292.43 on December 29, 2023. In the last session, the stock closed at Rs 1284, falling 0.84% in 2024. In terms of moving averages, the stock has turned weak both in the short term and long term.  RIL shares stand lower than the 5 day, 20 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages.

The stock has a beta of 1.2, indicating high volatility in a year. RIL shares have seen major corrections of 8% in a month and 4.11% in the last one week. 

In the last session, the company's market cap slipped to Rs 17.37 lakh crore. The stock closed 1.68% lower at Rs 1284 in the previous session. Total 9.27 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 119.14 crore on BSE. 

Reliance Industries shares hit an all-time high of Rs 1608.95 on July 8, 2024 and fell to a 52 week low of Rs 1149 on November 10, 2023. 

RIL stock has risen 9.90% in the last one year. In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of RIL stock stands at 30.2, signaling it's trading neither in the oversold nor in the overbought zone. 

HDFC Securities in its Diwali note said "Given the large technological advancements and ambitious growth targets, Reliance’s Retail, Telecom, and new energy segments are poised to become the upcoming growth drivers over the next two to three years. The company aims to double its EBITDA in the next five years, powered by 5G opportunities, increased investments in AI/data centers, further expansion in Retail and the start of PV/battery facilities in New Energy. The company could report a consolidated revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of approx. 19%/14%/16% over FY24-26E." 

While RIL's core business is seen remaining muted with weak refining and petchem outlook in the near term, gas production is expected to stay stable at 28-30 mmscmd with a realisation of $10/MMBtu, PL Capital Institutional Equities said in a note.

"Jio’s ARPU rose 7 per cent QoQ to Rs 195 and should improve over the next 2 quarters too due to the tariff hike undertaken by the company. Retail is also likely to continue its steady performance. Our estimates are not factoring in numbers of new energy businesses where RIL is investing Rs 75000 crore. Demerger of Retail/ Jio Platforms and more clarity of new energy businesses will improve outlook," PL Capital said in the Diwali note.

JM Financial said the conglomerate has plans to grow its revenue from Jio and retail businesses in the next 3-4 years. Additionally, its focus on green energy positions it well for the future, it said.