As India becomes an important growth area for commercial aviation, for the first time the country has been separated in this year’s forecast from the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. The Indian passenger aircraft fleet is forecast to rise from 720 at the end of 2023, to more than 3,800 aircraft over the next 20 years, according to the 2024 Cirium Fleet Forecast.
Cirium, a data analytics firm for the aviation industry, said that aircraft growth will drive Indian airlines’ share of Asia-Pacific’s entire passenger fleet from 8 percent today to 18 percent in 2043.
As India becomes an important growth area for commercial aviation, for the first time the country has been separated in this year’s forecast from the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, it said.
Indian airlines outpaced the world in aircraft orders in 2023 and the total order book stood at the second spot just behind the US. Indian carriers are expected to have an order book for 2,000 planes by March 2025, and already have an order book of 1,620 aircraft by Air India, Indigo and Akasa.
Asia as a whole will continue to be the leading region for growth, taking some 45 percent of deliveries, of which China will contribute some 20 percent on its own, almost reaching the North American total.
“So, over the next 20 years, the Indian passenger fleet is forecast to grow at the highest annual rate of around 8.7 percent, expanding its share from 3 percent to 8 percent, while China’s growth of 4.3 percent pushes its fleet 4 more points to 20 percent, just 1 point behind that of the more mature North American market, which will grow at just 1.8 percent,” Cirium said.
Europe will have the third largest fleet, at 18 percent, just 1 point ahead of other Asia-Pacific fleets. The Middle East will grow its share by 2 points to 5 percent.