Patna: The battle for Belaganj has become interesting with RJD candidate Vishwanath Kumar Singh — son of party MP from Jehanabad Surendra Prasad Yadav — finding himself in a challenging situation due to a complex political scenario. The RJD, which traditionally relies on the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank, faces threats from its rivals, who have fielded strong candidates in this byelection.
The JD(U) has nominated Manorama Devi, the wife of the notorious late don Bindi Yadav, while Jan Suraaj has chosen Mohammad Amjad, a Muslim candidate, for the November 13 byelection. To further complicate matters for RJD, AIMIM has also entered the fray, fielding Md Zamin Ali Hasan, another Muslim candidate. As a result, Vishwanath Kumar Singh's campaign is facing the possibility of a split in the crucial Muslim and Yadav votes.
"The RJD is caught in its toughest-ever electoral battle this time with chances of a split in the Muslim and Yadav votes," said Mithilesh Kumar, a resident of Belaganj. The seat is now shaping up to be a triangular contest between the RJD, JD(U) and Jan Suraaj. This bypoll was triggered after Surendra Prasad Yadav, the sitting MLA, was elected to the Lok Sabha from Jehanabad earlier this year, leading to the fielding of his son for the Belaganj seat.
The Belaganj constituency has a significant Yadav and Muslim population, which has traditionally supported the RJD. The Yadav voter base is approximately 70,000 while the Muslim voter base stands at around 60,000. A split in either vote bank would be detrimental to the RJD's chances. Pankaj Kumar Sinha, a Gaya resident, said, "This time, the situation is entirely different. Surendra has been restless, hopping from one village to another in this constituency, urging voters to save his prestige, but the damage is unavoidable."
Adding to the RJD's troubles is the strong support from the ruling NDA, which has mobilised a host of senior ministers — Union minister Rajiv Ranjan (Lalan Singh), Vijay Kumar Choudhary, Ashok Choudhary, Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha. Meanwhile, the RJD's star campaigner, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, has focused most of his attention on the Jharkhand assembly elections, leaving the Belaganj bypoll largely to local efforts.
The entry of Jan Suraaj into the race has further complicated the contest. Jan Suraaj's convener, Prashant Kishor, has devoted his energy to the campaign, urging voters to support him for a change. The political viability of Jan Suraaj's candidate, Mohammad Amjad, is evident from his strong performance in the 2010 assembly elections, where, contesting on a JD(U) ticket, he narrowly lost by just 4,638 votes.
In the last assembly elections, the contest was between the RJD and JD(U) with the RJD candidate winning by a margin of 23,963 votes. Now, with Surendra Yadav's prestige on the line, it will be an uphill battle for his son to secure a victory. "It will be a miracle of sorts if Surendra Yadav ensures the victory of his son. The dynamics of the election suggest that the RJD faces an uphill task in Belaganj," Pankaj Kumar Sinha adds.