US think tank projects 4.8% annual real GDP growth in 2024 for China

The US think tank’s leading economic index (LEI) for the country decreased by 0.2 per cent in September this year to 149.4 after a similar drop in August. The LEI declined by 1.2 per cent over the six-month period from March to September of 2024, slightly less than the 1.5-per cent contraction over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024.

Its coincident economic index (CEI) for China improved by 0.6 per cent in September to 150.6 following an increase of 0.7 per cent in August. Overall, the index grew by 2.9 per cent over the six-month period from March to September of 2024, nearly double the 1.5-per cent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, while the CEI offers an indication of the current state of the economy.

“The China LEI decreased slightly in September, continuing the gradual downward trend that began in early 2022,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate at the think tank.

“A persistently depressed consumer confidence weighed heavily on the index. The logistics prosperity index, low machinery and transport equipment imports, and a weak manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers’ index] also fueled the decline,” he said in a release from the think tank.

“The semi- and annual growth rates of the index remain negative but less so than in recent months, suggesting obstacles to economic growth persist but have not intensified,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)