As the World Test Championship (WTC) cycle nears its end, multiple teams are still in the race for a spot in the final, with no team guaranteed a place in the top two yet. Here’s how the qualification chances stack up:
India
- Current Percentage: 58.33%
- Matches Remaining: 5 (Australia, away)
India’s recent 0-3 defeat to New Zealand has left them needing a 4-0 clean sweep against Australia to ensure qualification independently. Such a result would raise India’s points percentage to 65.79%, just enough to edge out New Zealand’s possible 64.29% if they defeat England 3-0. However, if other teams drop points, India could still make it with a lower percentage.
New Zealand
- Current Percentage: 54.55%
- Matches Remaining: 3 (England, home)
New Zealand remains in contention following their successful series against India. A 3-0 win over England will place them at 64.29%, keeping them in the race. Any loss, however, would reduce their chances, leaving them dependent on other results.
South Africa
- Current Percentage: 54.17%
- Matches Remaining: 4 (Sri Lanka and Pakistan, both home)
South Africa’s qualification hopes are bright, especially with home advantage in their remaining matches. Winning all four would take them to 69.44%, likely enough for a top-two finish. Even with three wins and a draw, they could be in the mix if other results are favorable.
Australia
- Current Percentage: 62.50%
- Matches Remaining: 7 (India, home; Sri Lanka, away)
Australia has a strong chance of making the final, especially if they secure a 3-2 win over India. Five wins from their remaining seven matches will secure their spot regardless of other outcomes. However, losses in these series could open the door for other teams.
Sri Lanka
- Current Percentage: 55.56%
- Matches Remaining: 4 (South Africa, away; Australia, home)
Sri Lanka has made a late push, and a perfect finish in their remaining matches would boost their percentage to 69.23%, enough to qualify on their own. Losing one match, however, would make their path to the final more challenging.
England
- Current Percentage: 40.79%
- Matches Remaining: 3 (New Zealand, away)
England’s hopes are slim, even if they manage a 3-0 win over New Zealand. To qualify, they need a series of unlikely results from other teams. Their maximum achievable percentage, 48.86%, is probably insufficient for a top-two finish.
Pakistan
- Current Percentage: 33.33%
- Matches Remaining: 4 (South Africa, away; West Indies, home)
Pakistan needs a perfect record and several favorable outcomes from other teams to have any chance of making the final. Their best achievable percentage, 52.38%, would place them in contention only under specific conditions.
Bangladesh
- Current Percentage: 27.50%
- Matches Remaining: 2 (West Indies, away)
Even with two wins, Bangladesh would only reach 39.58%, which is not enough for a top-two finish.
West Indies
- Current Percentage: 18.52%
- Matches Remaining: 4 (Bangladesh, home; Pakistan, away)
West Indies can reach a maximum of 43.59%, which also rules them out of the running for a top-two finish.
With the WTC cycle in its final stages, India faces an uphill battle, needing a dominant 4-0 series win against Australia to control their own destiny. The rest of the field remains competitive, and each series outcome will be critical in determining the finalists for the WTC final at Lord’s next year.