Adani Ports: A robust ramp up in volumes across existing ports along with acquisition or new capacity additions may keep the growth trajectory on track, analysts said. The September quarter results by Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) largely met analyst estimates. APSEZ is expected to record 1.5-2 times of India’s cargo volume growth, driven by market share gains and increased capacity. Analysts said its logistics business will serve as a value addition to the domestic port business, with a focus on enhancing last-mile connectivity. They largely retained their 'Buy' ratings and target prices on the stock post Q2 results.
"APSEZ has been continuously delivering healthy growth across parameters. Moreover, the planned capacity expansion shall further drive volumes and in turn drive revenues and margin expansion. Acquisition on the port side along with multi-fold capacity creation in the logistic business should unleash multi-year growth prospects for APSEZ," said Nuvama Institutional Equities.
This brokerage expects revenue for Adani Ports to grow at 13 per cent, Ebitda at 15 per cent and PAT at 21 per cent, compounded annually, over FY24–27. It values the stock on 20 times estimated December 2026 EV/Ebitda to arrive at an unchanged target price of Rs 2,000.
APSEZ remained confident of achieving the earlier stated volume guidance (460–480 mmt for FY25) and achieve the upper end of Ebitda guidance (Rs 17,000–18,000 crore) during FY25. Robust ramp up in volumes across existing ports along with acquisition or new capacity additions may keep the growth trajectory on track, analysts said.
The company has been expanding its logistics business through expansion in rakes, warehousing, MMLPs and agri silos. This may enable the company to position itself as an end-to-end player in the value chain, Nuvama said.
MOFSL said it largely retained its estimates for FY25, FY26 and FY27. It expects Adani Ports to report 10 per cent growth in cargo volumes over FY24-27. This would drive a CAGR of 15 per cent in revenue, 15 per cent in Ebitda and 21 per cent in PAT over FY24-27.
"We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised target price of Rs 1,780 (premised on 18x on Sep-26 EV/Ebitda)," MOFSL said.