INTRO: The contenders of Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi are embroiled in a fierce battle across six constituencies in Nagpur rural. In 2014, the BJP emerged victorious in five seats, except for Saoner, where MLA Sunil Kedar thwarted their clean sweep. In 2019, the BJP and Congress won two seats each. NCP (SP) senior leader Anil Deshmukh staged a comeback in Katol, and an independent candidate Ashish Jaiswal triumphed in Ramtek. This time, the stakes are high for both mega alliances, as rebels and smaller parties are poised to play a pivotal role in the outcome. TOI's Vaibhav Ganjapure, Abhishek Choudhari & Proshun Chakraborty analise the constituencies
Kamptee
Bawankule's Comeback Trail: Can Bhoyar Break BJP's Winning Streak?
Chandrashekhar Bawankule (BJP) vs Suresh Bhoyar (Congress)
The constituency is set to witness the resurgence of BJP Maharashtra president Chandrashekar Bawankule, who was denied a ticket in the 2019 polls by the BJP's central leadership. His opponent, Congress candidate Suresh Bhoyar, suffered a defeat to the incumbent MLA Tekchand Sawarkar in 2019 by a margin exceeding 11,000 votes. Bawankule had previously emerged victorious in the seat on three occasions – in 2014, 2009, and 2004. In 2014, he vanquished former Congress minister Rajendra Mulak by a staggering 40,000 votes, and in 2009, he trounced Congress candidate Sunita Gawande by over 31,000 votes. Congress has reaffirmed its confidence in Bhoyar, a former Zilla Parishad member, who aspires to mount a formidable challenge against the BJP state chief. With Bawankule's re-entry, the constituency is poised to garner significant attention. While Bawankule, an MLC, aims to maintain his reputation, Bhoyar seeks to upset his applecart by capitalizing on factors such as anti-incumbency and caste-based equations. The performance of smaller parties like the VBA, BSP, and AIMIM may prove to be a spoilsport.
Katol
Legacy on the line in triangular fight
Charansing Thakur (BJP) vs Salil Deshmukh (NCP Sharad Pawar)
For nearly two weeks, speculation swirled regarding who from Mahayuti would contest from Katol against the five-time MLA and senior NCP leader Anil Deshmukh. Initially, the NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar staked claim to the seat, and Pawar even held a solitary rally in the town during his visit to Vidarbha. The BJP unit was also reluctant to concede the seat to its ally. Former Katol MLA Ashish Deshmukh had also expressed his desire to contest the seat, having defeated his uncle Anil in the 2014 polls. However, the BJP ultimately reposed faith in its leader from the constituency, Charansing Thakur, who had suffered defeats twice to Anil Deshmukh in 2009 and 2019. On the other hand, Deshmukh surprised everyone by allotting the ticket to his son Salil, a Zilla Parishad member. Yajnavalkya, son of the late Congress stalwart Shrikant Jichkar, had also demanded a ticket from the party, asserting that it was his father's seat. After being denied the ticket, he has filed his nomination as an independent candidate. His entry is likely to transform the contest into a triangular battle, and it will be intriguing to see who emerges victorious. The question remains whether Deshmukh's son can make a mark in his debut or if Thakur will be fortunate on his third attempt or Jichkar would continue his father's legacy.
Hingna
Showdown between BJP & NCP (SP)
Hingna is poised for a direct confrontation between the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Sharad Pawar and the BJP. Initially, internal competition within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) complicated the candidate selection process, as both the Congress and NCP vied for the ticket. Traditionally an NCP stronghold, the MVA ultimately chose to renominate former MLA Ramesh Bang, while the BJP fielded its three-time sitting MLA, Sameer Meghe.
Adding an intriguing dimension, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is also fielding a candidate, as in previous elections, where it typically garnered between 9,000 and 15,000 votes—a factor that could potentially benefit the BJP. Congress leaders, including senior party figure Sunil Kedar, had initially advocated for Kunda Raut, Zilla Parishad vice-president and Kedar's loyalist, to secure the Congress nomination. Shiv Sena (UBT) also staked its claim to the seat, with a local delegation led by Harshal Kakde appealing to senior Sena (UBT) leader Bhaskar Jadhav to secure ticket. The decision to overlook these requests has sparked discontent among grassroots workers in the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress camps, where party loyalists feel marginalized in the high-stakes contest for Hingna.
Saoner
Anuja Kedar (Congress) vs Ashish Deshmukh (BJP)
Dynastic Duel: Kedar's wife vs Deshmukh
In Saoner, a long-standing bastion of disqualified MLA Sunil Kedar, expectations were high for another decisive contest in favor of the Congress. Kedar, a five-time winner in the region, has now introduced his wife, Anuja Kedar, as the Congress candidate. Anuja, hailing from a prominent political lineage, is the daughter of former Nagpur mayor Kundatai Vijaykar and granddaughter of the late Maharashtra minister Shashirao Wankhede.
While Congress has chosen Anuja, the BJP has nominated former MLA Ashish Deshmukh, the elder son of veteran Congress leader Ranjit Deshmukh. In a twist of personal and political rivalry, Sunil Kedar, running as an independent, once defeated Ashish's father, a former MPCC president and state minister. Now, Ashish has the opportunity to avenge his father's loss by challenging Kedar's wife in what promises to be a high-stakes face-off.
Although the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has also fielded a candidate, the primary battle remains a direct showdown between the Congress and BJP. The influential Kunbi community, particularly the Tirde and Dhanoje sub-castes, will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. The Tirde Kunbis, who have traditionally supported Kedar, have been a key factor in his consistent victories in Saoner.
Ramtek
Sena vs. Sena: Shinde's Seasoned Faces Uddhav's Newcomer
Ashish Jaiswal (Sena Shinde) vs Vishal Barbate (Sena UBT)
This is the sole constituency in Nagpur district where a Sena vs Sena battle is on the horizon. Ashish Jaiswal, who won as an independent in 2019, has now joined the Shiv Sena Shinde faction to become their official candidate for the polls. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena has made a surprise choice in Vishal Barbate, who has yet to prove his mettle in assembly polls.
On paper, the Shinde faction has the upper hand, as their candidate Jaiswal has emerged victorious in the Ramtek seat four times (non-consecutively) and is confident of securing a fifth win. CM Eknath Shinde has consistently portrayed Jaiswal as his close aide, holding multiple public events in Ramtek where he urged people to vote for Jaiswal. CM Shinde has publicly stated that "all major development" in the region has been accomplished due to Jaiswal's insistence.
On the other hand, the Uddhav faction's Barbate is untested in the constituency but is relying on the party's cadre base in the region to clinch the seat. However, problems have already surfaced for Barbate, and they do not stem from Mahayuti. Within the MVA, the Congress was confident of securing the seat and may not actively participate in the campaign. Congressman Chandrapal Chouksey has already filed his nomination as an independent candidate, which is likely to impact MVA votes.