Aviation major IndiGo is likely to report subdued numbers with the company likely slipping back into the losses in the second quarter ended September 2024.

While Kotak Equities and Motilal Oswal peg the loss for the company anywhere between Rs 236 and Rs 680 crore, Nuvama is expecting the budget airline to report a PAT of around Rs 107 crore.

IndiGo had reported a net profit of Rs 189 crore in the September quarter of last year and a profit of Rs 2728 crore in the preceding June quarter.

Net sales, meanwhile, are seen rising 5% year-on-year during the second quarter under review, according to an average estimate of four brokerages.

Here's what analysts expect from IndiGo's Q2:

Kotak Equities

We expect a 8% YoY change in passenger count in the quarter and lower YoY load factor at 83%. We expect RASK less CASK (excludes other income and forex) at loss of Rs 0.26 per ASK, against loss of Rs 0.1 per ASK in 2QFY24. The difference is based on lower fuel spreads (crude was falling through the base quarter), and continuation of large part of cost pressures seen in 4Q (P&W issues, employee cost).

Nuvama

We expect EBITDAR to rise by 35% YoY due to continued compensation from OEM for breach of contractual obligations, marginally higher ASKMs, RPKMs, yields and lower CASK.

Motilal Oswal

Expect ASK at 2720 (-23% YoY), PLF at 83.5% (up from 83.3% in 2QFY24) and RPK of 2270 (down 23% YoY). According to our database, IndiGo’s average fare was up 1% QoQ at Rs 6,049 on one-month forward bookings, while the same was down 14% QoQ at Rs 5,359 on 15-day forward bookings.

Outlook on P&W engine-fitted aircraft (being grounded in FY25) is a key monitorable. Further, the commentary on impending competition would be keenly monitored.

International expansion is the focus area for the management with the addition of new networks and code share agreements.

ICICI Securities

We factor RASK of Rs 4.57 for IndiGo (Rs 4.23 in Q2FY24 and Rs 5.39 in Q1FY25) and cost ex-fuel ASK of Rs 2.97 in Q2FY25E (Rs 3.02 in Q1FY25).

Expect PBT of Rs 400 crore in Q2FY25 for IndiGo. This is based on RASK-CASK spread of (Rs 0.09) on ASK of 3820 with other income of Rs 750 crore. As always, yields can lead to positive/negative surprises but OEM compensation can also be a big support as seen in Q1FY25.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)