Will 2.22L new voters in Nagpur district tip the scales at polls?

Nagpur: In just six months after the Lok Sabha elections in April this year, 2.22 lakh voters were added to the electoral list of Nagpur district. As per data provided by the district administration, from 42.72 lakh registered voters in the district during the LS election, the count has increased to 44.94 lakh voters ahead of the assembly election.
Missing names in the electoral roll during the LS polls had invited severe criticism for the administration from not only voters but also major political parties.Prominent politicians from the city and the district had stated that the number of missing names could be in lakhs, with some even calling for re-election.
In the city limits alone, over 1.42 lakh new voters were registered post-LS polls, while around 80,000 new voters were added in Nagpur rural areas. Interestingly, only 97,086 of the total new voters are first-timers. The highest voter increase in the city has been registered in the Nagpur South-West constituency represented by deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. With 19,323 new voters, the lowest increase in the city was recorded in Nagpur South constituency where Mohan Mate is the sitting MLA.
At 32,178, Kamptee constituency has seen the highest addition of new voters not only in rural areas but also in the district.
As per a poll analyst, this substantial increase in voter count could impact the win probability, in constituencies where the win margin wasn't much. Explaining this, he said, "In 2019, BJP won the Nagpur South seat by a margin of just 4,013 votes, and retained the constituency. Now, assuming that if all those who had voted for BJP in 2019 don't get swayed, the saffron party can still lose its ground in Nagpur South if just 20% of the newly-added voters exercise their franchise and favour another party."
Another example is Nagpur Central, where BJP's Vikas Kumbhare emerged winner by a margin of just 4,008 votes in 2019. The constituency has seen an addition of over 23,000 voters after the LS election this year, which might again complicate the political calculations.