RIL Q2 Results Live Updates: PAT may fall 10% YoY; weak O2C seen hurting operational performance

In Q2FY25, Reliance is likely to see a sharp decline (-9%) in its OTC segment earnings QoQ with an estimated USD 0.8/bbl QoQ decline in GRMs, partly offset by marginally better petchem spreads. RJio may deliver 6.6% QoQ rise in EBITDA, with RIL’s retail EBITDA flat QoQ. Upstream is also likely to show softness, with a slight production decline and higher profit petroleum share of government to dent margins. Overall, consolidated EBITDA/PAT may rise by a marginal 2%/2% QoQ in Q2FY25E, with YoY decline at 4%/11%.

With JIO having a higher proportion of customers on longer-duration packs, we estimate 6% revenue growth in 2Q followed by 7% in 2H (with most of this in 3Q).

Cyclical challenges, especially in refining and retail, are likely to continue – but we find this priced in. In 2025, as new refining capacity is absorbed, retail profitability improves, and new energy cashflows kick in, re-rating should regain traction. RIL rises to #5 in our preference order. Price target Rs3,325

Reliance Industries shares are in the spotlight today as the company is set to announce its July-September 2024 quarterly results later this evening.

In recent weeks, RIL shares have experienced a decline, dropping over 6% in the past month. This slump has been driven by weak global market conditions and foreign outflows impacting large-cap stocks.

Reliance Industries is expected to report muted second-quarter earnings, largely due to challenges in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment. The company will announce its results on October 14.

According to an average of six brokerage estimates, net profit is anticipated to decline by up to 10% year-on-year, with net sales likely to decrease slightly by 0.6% compared to the same period last year.