Andrew Champagne’s picks, analysis, bankroll

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —

Best Bet: Studlydoright, Race 11

Longshot: Abreu entry, Race 9

Race 1:

Dare to Breeze

Gerlin’s Empire

Amore Sofia

#4 DARE TO BREEZE (4/5): Could get the first Saturday card of the meet off to a very chalky start. She exits one of the best 2-year-old races we’ve seen all year, one that’s already produced the Schuylerville runner-up and a next-out maiden winner; #3 GERLIN’S EMPIRE (6-1): Debuts for Dallas Stewart and is bred to want more ground, but she’s been working well and attracts Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. She’s got every right to be a runner, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if she shows talent here; #5 AMORE SOFIA (5-1): Goes against open company when she could be running against New York breds, and that seems like a vote of confidence. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s first-time starters often need a race, but the last-out gate work indicates she could have potential.

Race 2:

Mysterious Night

Carl Spackler

Talk of the Nation

#2 MYSTERIOUS NIGHT (8/5): Is one of several contenders in the Grade 3 Kelso that exit the Grade 3 Poker on the Belmont Stakes undercard. He had a strange trip that day and was the only runner to be gaining ground in the final strides. If he’s sharper second off the bench for world-class connections, look out; #5 CARL SPACKLER (2-1): May have bounced a bit in the Poker after a win in his 2024 debut at Churchill Downs. He’s won two graded stakes races over this turf course and has every right to bounce back here; #4 TALK OF THE NATION (2-1): Didn’t seem to have many excuses in the Poker, when he ran third after pressing a very moderate pace. He could sit a similar trip here against a shorter field; the question is, can he move forward off of what sure seemed like a dream setup last time out?

Race 3:

Celestial Glaze

SOK entry

Poppy’s Pride

#4 CELESTIAL GLAZE (3-1): Broke through to end a long drought last time out, when he won a head-bob at Gulfstream to earn his first win since March of 2023. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and when this barn gets horses going the right way, they can string wins together in bunches; SOK ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1A TOP GUNNER, although the lack of a recent win is a big problem. Having said that, he’s been running against much tougher competition, and if the recent workouts are any indication, he’s thriving in upstate New York; #2 POPPY’S PRIDE (6-1): Is a consistent, hard-trying gelding who sure seems like the main speed in this event. He’s got enough zip to take advantage of the inside draw, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lane Luzzi attempt to steal this one on the front end.

Race 4:

Illuminare

Uncorrelated

Classic Legacy

#2 ILLUMINARE (7/5): Did everything right in his debut, when he stalked and pounced at this route last month. I’m not quite sure what he beat that day, but he looked good doing it, and several of his recent workouts indicate he’s ready for his first try against winners; #1 UNCORRELATED (12-1): Ships up from Monmouth after a string of impressive works for Chad Brown, who has guided him through some issues during a layoff of more than 16 months. We haven’t seen him since last year’s Grade 3 Gotham, but his first-out win was fine and the likely price seems like an overlay; #3 CLASSIC LEGACY (5/2): Hasn’t won since December of 2022, and he’s burned plenty of money along the way. However, he does cut back from a mile to seven furlongs, his early 2024 races at similar routes were pretty strong, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

Race 5:

Certified Loverboy (MTO)

Brown entry

Hunt Ball

BROWN ENTRY (6/5): One of the most powerful barns on the circuit seems to be in a great spot here. #1 TRANSACTIONAL makes his comeback after a year and a half away, while #1A UNIT ECONOMICS earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden-breaking score last month; #4 HUNT BALL (8-1): Came from way, way back to be fourth here last month and has found a home as a one-run closer on the turf. There seems to be some speed signed on, and he should be going in the right direction late at a bit of a price; #3 REBEL RED (5-1): Earned the diploma last time out in his second start off a long break. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back for Cherie DeVaux, whose barn is enjoying a banner year to this point.

Race 6:

U Should B Dancing

Stolen Future

Strictly Taboo

#6 U SHOULD B DANCING (6-1): Gets a tepid top pick in a race where I truly don’t have a strong opinion. She makes her third start off the bench here, attracts Flavien Prat, and has shown an affinity for this route of ground. At her likely price, she’s an appealing value proposition; #7 STOLEN FUTURE (7/2): Is another making her third start off the bench, and she may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he may have had several options, and that might be a clue; #11 STRICTLY TABOO (6-1): Graduated last time out with a picture-perfect trip. She faces winners for the first time and doesn’t draw very well, but Rosario rides back and this isn’t the toughest first-level allowance we’ll see this summer.

Race 7:

Tenacious Leader

Asleep At Eight

Tough Catch

#3 TENACIOUS LEADER (5/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., which alone makes him worthy of some respect. Add in a work tab with several sparkling gate drills and a rock-solid pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a mare who’s kin to, among others, multiple graded stakes winner War Story), and there’s a lot to like; #5 ASLEEP AT EIGHT (8-1): Didn’t run poorly in his unveiling, when he settled for second at Churchill Downs last month. His pedigree indicates he’ll improve with experience, and he’s got an edge over most of this field in that department; #1 TOUGH CATCH (8-1): Gets a tricky inside draw for his debut, but he hammered for $280,000 despite a modest-looking pedigree and has been working well for Dallas Stewart. Luis Saez is one of the top gate riders in the country, and he may be able to get this first-time starter into a good spot despite the undesirable post.

Race 8:

Commuted

Point Clear

Upstanding

#7 COMMUTED (5-1): Closed with a rush to be third in his debut for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully cranked. This son of Gun Runner has every right to improve at second asking, and if that happens, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #2 POINT CLEAR (5-1): Salvaged second despite a rough start last month and is another that could take a step forward. Jose Ortiz got to know him that day, and several recent works hint that he’s been doing well; #3 UPSTANDING (4-1): Debuts for Pletcher and Irad and is bred in the purple. He fetched $400,000 at auction in 2022 and he’s got every right to be well-meant, but seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, and I think there’s a chance he needs this initial effort.

Race 9:

Abreu entry

Irish Aces

Georgie W

ABREU ENTRY (10-1): The more I look at #1 TIDAL FORCES, the more I like him. He comes back to the turf, has plenty of tactical speed, and showed enough class to finish third in a stakes race at Gulfstream earlier this year. I think he could sit an ideal trip and get the first run at a price; #8 IRISH ACES (2-1): Drops in class after finishing a competitive third in the Grade 3 Arlington at Churchill. He was much closer to the pace than he usually is on that occasion, and he may need to sit that kind of trip here in a race without a ton of true early zip; #7 GEORGIE W (8-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort, which came off of an 11-month break. He didn’t run terribly to be third that day, and a step forward second off the bench beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly not out of the question.

Race 10:

Didia

Chili Flag

Whitebeam

#4 DIDIA (7/2): Is one of the easiest horses to root for that you’ll ever find. She’s 11-for-17, won the Grade 1 New York last time out, and always seems to fire a big shot. In a race with many milers stretching out, this one has shown an affinity for this nine-furlong trip, and that could be enough to win a fantastic renewal of the Grade 1 Diana; #10 CHILI FLAG (9/2): Has won three in a row, and four of her last five dating back to November. One of those victories was in the Grade 1 Just A Game here last month, and if there’s any sort of a battle up front, this one should be a main beneficiary; #6 WHITEBEAM (4-1): Won this race last year, when she ran down fellow Chad Brown trainee In Italian. She hasn’t won since, but she was a good second in the Just A Game, and her tactical speed should be a big plus.

Race 11:

Studlydoright

Mentee

Mr. Squeaky Wheels

#6 STUDLYDORIGHT (7/2): Came from far, far back to upset the field in the Tremont last month and figures to be rolling late again in the Grade 3 Sanford. It’s tough for most 2-year-olds to make up so much ground, but this one’s shown he can do it, and I think he’s an exciting prospect; #1 MENTEE (6/5): Looked home free in mid-stretch last time out, but he wound up barely holding off that day’s runner-up after leading by five in mid-stretch. Maybe it was inexperience, or perhaps it was overconfidence by a rider who usually doesn’t make those mistakes. Improvement would make him the one to beat, but the rail draw doesn’t help, and at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him; #2 MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS (15-1): Debuted with a sharp score over the synthetic surface at Presque Isle and ships in for a solid barn. Jose Ortiz has been enlisted to ride, and if he likes dirt as much as he relishes that synthetic surface, I think he’s got a shot at a very square price.

Race 12:

Upside Potential (MTO)

Dr Oseran

Final Verdict

#2 DR OSERAN (7/2): Ran a sneaky-good race two back at Pimlico over a turf course that was nowhere close to “good.” I’m treating the last-out dud as a bounce, and it’s encouraging that Joel Rosario gets back in the saddle for Christophe Clement in the Saturday finale; #1 FINAL VERDICT (6-1): Finished first at odds of 70-1 last time out before being disqualified due to interference. You won’t get anywhere near that price in this spot, but I do think he’s live, and I imagine he’ll be prominent early beneath new jockey Tyler Gaffalione; #5 HEYMACKIT’SJACK (8-1): Came back running in his first start since May, when he was a competitive third downstate. He made up some ground that day, which isn’t something he’d shown much of an affinity for before his long layoff. A logical step forward would give him a chance at a bit of a price.

BANKROLL: $954

If you have money in the, “When will Andrew use this space for a cheap plug?” pool, listen up! Closing night in Hong Kong is coming up on Sunday. If you’re up late on Saturday or early on Sunday (I don’t judge either scenario!), tune into the North American simulcast feed from Sha Tin.

The first post time is 4 a.m. Eastern. I’ll be providing insight on each race, and if you like big fields of super-talented horses, you’re in for a treat.

Being able to do this for the last six weeks or so has been an absolute blast. I’d like to thank the Hong Kong Jockey Club and everyone there for their hospitality and support. It’s been an honor to share the stage with some folks who are among the best in the world at what they do, and hopefully, I can give out a few winners to finish off the season.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The seventh was indeed a grass grab bag, but I was nowhere close and dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, where I really hope we get the 10-1 morning line price on #1 TIDAL FORCES. I’ll have a $10 win bet on him, and I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #7 GEORGIE W, #8 IRISH ACES, and #9 BEUYS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.