SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —
BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,000
It’s only been a month since I was last here, but a lot has happened since. The summer meet at the Alameda County Fair has come and gone, and I’ve also been fortunate to do a bunch of great stuff with the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s new North American simulcast feed. If you’re up late Saturday or early Sunday, check out closing day at Sha Tin.
Also, I’m officially entering the “tout” world at Winners and Whiners, the site I’ve been working on since coming to Raketech in November. During the Saratoga meet, I’ll have betting strategies for one multi-race bet each day, at $5 per day. Today, it’s a midday double, largely because both races are on dirt and should (I hope…) go with close to the fields we see in the program despite an ominous weather forecast.
If you’re new to this section: Every day, I’ll have bets on Saratoga action, complete with a mythical $1,000 bankroll to draw from. I’ll also have this space to expound on a few things. Let’s get to Opening Day!
THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m diving right in with action on the opener. I’ll play $3 exactas using #2 BOLD VICTORY (my longshot of the day) and #5 I AM THE LAW on top of those two, #6 ACCIDENTAL HERO, and #8 ROCCO STRONG. I’ll also box my top two horses (Bold Victory and I Am the Law) in an additional $2 bet, too.
TOTAL WAGERED: $22.
SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: All That Magic, Race 4
Longshot: Bold Victory, Race 1
Race one:
I Am the Law
Bold Victory
Rocco Strong
#5 I AM THE LAW (3-1): Has been running against far, far tougher competition for most of his career and drops way down the class ladder for the summer lid-lifter. Add in that he’s hit the board in nine of 10 starts over wet tracks (with two wins), and he looks like a very legitimate favorite; #2 BOLD VICTORY (20-1): Stretches back out to two turns, which is clearly his preferred route of ground, and should have plenty of speed to run at. There’s a possibility his best days are behind him, but a return to his desired trip, a favorable race shape, and a big price all mean I need to use him; #8 ROCCO STRONG (4-1): Is another with plenty of back class and an affinity for wet tracks. He won very impressively in the mud earlier this year at Aqueduct and has faced stakes or stakes-quality opposition in each of his last four outings.
Race two:
Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Aspen Grove
Madaket entry
#4 ASPEN GROVE (7/5): Looms very large in the unlikely event this stays on the turf. Draw a line through her dud in the Grade 1 New York last time out, and her career looks far, far better. If we’re still on the grass, this daughter of Justify is strictly the one to beat; MADAKET ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A AVENUE NIEL, who raced well three times last year before going to the sidelines. Her September 2023 allowance score was a good effort, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride for Christophe Clement; #3 BE YOUR BEST (3-1): Looked like a budding star in 2022, when she won two races here as a 2-year-old (including the P.G. Johnson Stakes). She hasn’t won since, but she drops into the allowance/optional claiming ranks for the first time and could conceivably wake up.
Race 3:
Miss Maximus
Needed
Neigh Jude
#4 MISS MAXIMUS (4-1): Has shown early speed against much better horses and takes a significant drop in class. After her last two outings against straight maidens, she now runs for a tag against state breds, and I think there’s a chance she gets very comfortable from the jump; #10 NEEDED (5-1): Makes her first start for Linda Rice in this spot, which doubles as her first outing since January. The best race of her career to date was a close-up second in the mud late last year, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to go; #3 NEIGH JUDE (7/2): Finished a distant second downstate last time out and has a history of gate trouble. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Kelly Breen, and perhaps there’s room for improvement in what will be just her fifth-lifetime start.
Race four:
All That Magic
Bustin Bay (MTO)
Madaket entry
#8 ALL THAT MAGIC (8-1): Gets Lasix for the first time in three starts this year, and I’m expecting that to make a major difference. All but one of her six career victories have come with Lasix, and she attracts Luis Saez in her third start off the bench; MADAKET ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A LADY MIA, a filly that showed she can run on soft turf in some of her overseas starts. She’s run just once since October, but that was a solid, winning effort in an allowance at Aqueduct; #4 RUN FOR THE HILLS (2-1): Is another getting Lasix back after a few tries against stakes foes. One of those efforts was a close-up third over yielding going at Churchill Downs, and she’s a contender if they stay on the lawn and a speed duel ensues.
Race five:
New York Scrappy
Concorde Spirit
Brown Eyed Cat
#1 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (3-1): Had an eventful trip in his debut, when he ran third despite several instances of trouble. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and this one goes turf-to-dirt and adds blinkers for a trainer whose runners tend to improve at second asking; #9 CONCORDE SPIRIT (6-1): Was a one-paced third in his unveiling and is another that has a right to take a step forward. This regally-bred son of Uncle Mo is trained by Bill Mott and has several strong workouts on his tab ahead of this event; #7 BROWN EYED CAT (9/2): Is one of two first-time starters trained by Bruce Levine, and he’s got a solid pedigree and back-to-back bullet drills. Add in the presence of jockey Javier Castellano and top off-track influence Stormy Atlantic on the dam’s side, and you’ve got an intriguing horse.
Race six:
Will Not Be Swayed
Strong State
My Lady Bae
#2 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (7/2): Debuts in the first 2-year-old race of the meet and sports several strong gate works at Keeneland for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. Prat will be aboard, which is another reason to think this daughter of Preakness winner War of Will could be a runner; #1 STRONG STATE (5/2): Had plenty of trouble in her debut last month, where she blew the break but still rallied to finish second. She could certainly improve, but the inside draw is a concern and the pedigree indicates she may want even more distance; #7 MY LADY BAE (12-1): Merits a look at a price given her strong win-early pedigree. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, her second dam won at first asking, and this one has been working consistently for Rob Atras, who boasts a strong 20% win rate with first-time starters.
Race seven:
Speightful Lily (MTO)
Mosienko (MTO)
Solib
#3 SOLIB (4-1): Came from way, way back to be second last time out at a bit of a price. I do think she’s a bit better on dirt (which could come in handy here), but she’s also shown an ability to sprint on turf, and her turf record looks far better if you toss her two route tries here last summer; #7 MARCO T. (3-1): Cleared her first-level allowance condition last time out and has won two of her last three starts. The lone loss came in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly against much better horses, and this is probably the right level; #1 IM JUST KIDDIN (5/2): Is another that probably wants no part of two turns. She’s probably had some issues given just one start since Sept. but she’s a contender if she’s ready to run (and if this stays on turf).
Race eight:
Just Music (MTO)
Crushed Ice (MTO)
Elle Est Forte
#9 ELLE EST FORTE (7/2): Has run several big races for trainer Ray Handal since being claimed here last summer. Most recently, she was a good second downstate, and if this stays on turf, she gets a tepid top selection; #4 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (5-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. She goes second off the bench here, and the runner-up from her last race came back to win at next asking; #8 MORE MANGO (15-1): Ran a big one to be second against starter allowance foes last time out, when she was 48-1 and led in deep-stretch. She’s run fairly well in a few different turf races, though, so if this stays on, she’s not without a shot.
Race nine:
Blazing Sevens
Classic Catch
Rocket Can
#7 BLAZING SEVENS (7/2): Found the Grade 1 Met Mile way too tough, and while this is a classy optional claimer, the waters are much more shallow here. He gets Lasix back in this spot, and he won the Grade 1 Champagne earlier in his career over the type of off track he may see here; #9 CLASSIC CATCH (6-1): Is a grinder in a race with plenty of early speed, and the race shape may work to his benefit. His last-out effort at Churchill was a heartbreaking second, and he doesn’t have to move forward much (if at all) to be a major player; #6 ROCKET CAN (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 3 Holy Bull and went on to run ninth in the Kentucky Derby. We’ve only seen him once since, but that was a professional score at Oaklawn Park, and he’s another possible beneficiary of the likely frontrunner-heavy race shape.
Race 10:
Viggiedal
Long Neck Paula
Carmen’s Candy Jar
#10 VIGGIEDAL (9/2): Never looked like a loser in her debut, where this $350,000 auction purchase went wire-to-wire and romped by five lengths. She draws well in the Schuylerville Stakes and could give trainer Steve Asmussen his fourth win in this event; #9 LONG NECK PAULA (8-1): Was the likely favorite in the Astoria last month but scratched due to a bizarre set of circumstances. She’s back, has worked well ahead of this race, and her absence from the previous race may, bizarrely, mean a bigger price here; #6 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (6-1): Showed some grit in her unveiling, when she prevailed downstate for powerhouse connections. The pedigree says the stretchout in distance absolutely won’t be a problem, and it’s notable when you see a first-time starter pass other horses late.
Race 11
Houlton (MTO)
Kick a Buck
Vincita
#9 KICK A BUCK (9/5): Is strictly the one to beat if the Thursday finale stays on the turf. He’s been running against straight maidens to this point in his career, and while his last-out dud is concerning, anything close to his two or three-back efforts likely puts him in the winner’s circle; #3 VINCITA (12-1): Tries turf for the first time here and is bred to love it. The connections have tried to run him on the grass multiple times, and that’s often a clue. Add in that he’s not facing any world-beaters, and the 12-1 price looks enticing; #2 GET IT TO MATTHEW (20-1): Is another trying turf for the first time, and while I’m not sure he wants two turns, the pedigree is all-grass. This one is by Mendelssohn and out of a Tapit mare, and he could be sitting on a move forward second off the bench.
