Is Lebanon likely to be the next flashpoint for escalation in the Middle-East? This is a question being asked increasingly. Although there has been fire exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah for over 8 months, its intensity has increased of late, giving rise this to this question being asked more frequently.
Of course, what the Middle East region needs the most is the immediate resolution of the Gaza conflict, based on permanent ceasefire plus release of hostages and prisoners, and not any escalation or widening of the conflict. However, the state of the world affairs in recent years has been such that what actually happens with increasing frequency is the reverse of what is needed from the perspective of peace. Something similar may happen in the Middle-East in the near future unless urgent steps to avoid the escalation is not taken soon.
The last time when the Middle-East conflict came very close to escalation was in April when the dangerous prospects was avoided by restraint and responsibility shown by both Iran and the USA. The crisis was started then by Israel attacking an extended embassy building of Iran in Syria, killing several senior commanders. Iran had to retaliate for such a huge provocation, and as a tense world waited, wisdom prevailed over anger. Despite all their hostility, somehow the USA and Iran established contact to handle the crisis with restraint. Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel which appeared to be spectacular but was actually planned carefully not to inflict heavy damage and the USA was informed regarding this in advance so that it could work with its allies to further prevent serious harm.
The USA then also prevailed upon Israel to give only a retrained response. Thereby the feared escalation was avoided. Nevertheless, the fact remained that with its original attack Israel had planned for escalation which could draw - first Iran and then the USA, more directly into the conflict.
Something similar may be attempted again as Israel’s increasingly aimless aggression in Gaza is getting it nowhere closer to any decisive results which could be shown to its people as some sort of victory. While immense distress and suffering has been inflicted on the people of Gaza, with nearly 38,000 people dying, about 86,000 injured and almost all experiencing at least some displacement or dislocation, Israel is nowhere close to achieving its declared objectives. At the same time, Israel is increasingly coming under attack for its human rights violations, getting more isolated internationally.
Moreover at a personal level, the Israeli Prime Minister is getting increasingly unpopular within Israel, even within the military, and feels the need to achieve some sort of victory elsewhere if he cannot achieve this in Gaza. A prolonged and enlarged war, despite all its risks, distress and tragic implications, suits him when seen from a very selfish perspective as once the war ends without any big and certain victory he’ll have to answer many difficult questions and may even be in jail.
At the same time, nearly 60,000 people of northern parts of Israel bordering Lebanon have remained displaced due to the continuing exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, the leading Shia militia based in Lebanon, with close links to Iran and Hamas. Its spokespersons have claimed that Hezbollah has nearly 100,000 fighters, with more willing to join. It is now reported to have an arsenal of nearly 150,000 rockets and missiles. Even when Hezbollah had lesser arms, it had given the Israeli forces a tough time in 2006. It is regarded as a very important part of the axis of resistance. It is more heavily armed now, and Israel is still engaged in its original conflict of Gaza.
Hence the prospects of Israel in the case of any escalation of conflict with Hezbollah will certainly not be easy, but still certain rightwing hardliners may nevertheless be supportive towards this as they see some parts of southern Lebanon as rightful territory of Greater Israel. However for most people of Israel this war can be justified in terms of ensuring the safe home return of displaced 60,000 people (although in reality the situation in the Israel-Lebanon border areas may actually become more unsafe once a bigger conflict starts).
While the USA is not encouraging such escalation, the understanding is that once the Lebanon front opens up in a big way, the USA will certainly give Israel the help it needs in terms of continuing supply of weapons and ammunition needed, as well as other military and diplomatic support. If Israel faces more difficulties or reverses militarily, then the USA too can get more involved, for example in bombing certain targets. Iran too will also have to increase its support for Hezbollah in case of difficulties faced by its ally.
Apart from intended and planned escalation, there is also a possibility that as exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel has already continued for over 8 months, this can on its own strength spiral into a much bigger war in certain circumstances of one side trying to respond in a bigger way and the other side then also doing the same.
Thus both - in terms of deliberate planning for a bigger conflict as well as in terms of escalation of routine fire exchange in certain circumstances, the possibilities of a bigger war between Israel and Hezbollah and an invasion by Israel exist which will draw in the USA and Iran to a bigger extent and make the Middle East region an even more dangerous place than it already is, for its people as for the world peace.
All forces of peace should try to prevent this broadening of conflict based on Israel-Lebanon borders as the flash point.
As the past conflicts, particularly of 2006, as well as past occupation show, there are deep-rooted hostilities between Israeli forces and Hezbollah and to unleash them into full force at a time when the weapons being used are much more destructive and the overall international situation is also much more volatile would be very dangerous indeed.
[The writer, Bharat Dogra, is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, A Day in 2071 and Earth without Borders.]
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