SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —
Best Bet: Prince of Monaco, Race 8
Longshot: Sosua Summer, Race 9
R1
General Partner
Vespucci
Quick to Accuse
#3 GENERAL PARTNER (5/2): Is entered on Friday, but I hope he runs here, as this hits me as a much easier spot. This colt ran second in the Grade 1 Champagne last year before chasing Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he’s worked well ahead of his 2024 debut; #7 VESPUCCI (10-1): Stretches back out to a mile after finishing third in a sprint at Monmouth, and I think this is his preferred trip. His three-back loss was an absolute heartbreaker, and he ran into several next-out winners two back; #5 QUICK TO ACCUSE (7/2): Has won two in a row since going to the Brad Cox barn and takes a significant step up in class here. Both of those victories came against state-breds, and this one’s against open company.
R2
Rice entry (MTO)
Lady de Berry
Eclipse entry
#5 LADY DE BERRY (4-1): Looked like a legitimate prospect late last year, when she broke her maiden at Keeneland before running second in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar. She hasn’t raced since, but she’s working consistently for Chad Brown and seems like an overlay at the morning line price; ECLIPSE ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A SOURCE, who has a big chance despite a terrible post. She won first time out in France late last year and attracts Frankie Dettori (who should absolutely be enshrined in the Hall of Fame across the street, by the way…) for her North American debut; #11 AGRA (8-1): Is one of two Bill Mott trainees in here, and she makes her second start off the bench here. She’s improved since stretching out in distance over the winter and may be able to relax a bit beneath John Velazquez.
R3
Awesome Native
Subrogate
Full Screen
#6 AWESOME NATIVE (4-1): Is a deep closer in a race full of early speed and comes in off of several strong drills. The switch to a low-percentage barn is a concern, but if you subscribe to the notion that pace makes the race, he seems very, very dangerous; #5 SUBROGATE (5-1): Is 2-for-2 in dirt sprints, and it’s possible they’ve figured out what he wants to do after a few route experiments early on. His 2024 debut last time out was a good win, and this barn does great work with a small amount of stock; #8 FULL SCREEN (7/2): Has a frightening aversion to winning, with zero victories in the last two calendar years. However, he exits a few fast races against classy horses, the cutback in distance should help him, and he seems like a must-use in exactas and trifectas.
R4
Gun Pilot
Ninetyprcentmaddie
Accretive
#5 GUN PILOT (1-1): Earned his first Grade 1 win in the Churchill Downs on Derby Day and looms large in what hits me as a subpar renewal of the Grade 2 True North. He’s developed very nicely in his 4-year-old season, and unlike many in here, he can pass others late; #1 NINETYPRCENTMADDIE (8-1): Merits a long look in the exotics at a bit of a price given his consistency and late-running style. He ran a fast-closing second in the Grade 3 Runhappy downstate and should get plenty of pace to chase in here; #4 ACCRETIVE (5-1): May have turned into a bit of a hanger, as he was probably supposed to win last time out downstate. Still, his best race from a speed figure standpoint makes him a major player, and toss Chad Brown in a big spot at your own peril.
R5
Casa Creed
Carl Spackler
Talk of the Nation
#2 CASA CREED (9/5): Is a local favorite given his back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Fourstardave, and he looks tough in the Grade 3 Poker. This is a strong bunch, but he’s 4-for-6 over this turf course, has shown versatility, and should be ready off a bit of a freshening; #3 CARL SPACKLER (2-1): Presents the biggest challenge to my top pick and comes in on a three-race win streak. Most recently, he came off the bench to win the Opening Verse at Churchill, and he could be in position to improve off of that effort; #7 TALK OF THE NATION (7/2):
R6
Bendoog
Crupi
Time for Trouble
#8 BENDOOG (2-1): Takes a significant jump in class to run in the Grade 2 Suburban, but he sure seems like the only horse that may want to go early. He got a perfect trip last time out downstate, and if another materializes here, he could prove tough to catch; #7 CRUPI (3-1): Didn’t do much running in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, but ran several strong races in a row before that (including a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup). He took a little while to come around, but he’s turned into a strong older horse for Hall of Fame conditioner Todd Pletcher; #5 TIME FOR TROUBLE (15-1): Has picked up minor awards against graded stakes foes in each of his last two outings, and I think he’ll relish the added distance he gets here. He ran third in the Grade 3 Essex two back, and I think that may very well have been a better group (that day’s winner, First Mission, came right back to win another graded stakes race).
R7
Idiomatic
Pretty Mischievous
Randomized
#5 IDIOMATIC (3/5): Came back running to romp in the Grade 1 La Troienne, and she’ll see her seventh straight score in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. The pace scenario may challenge her a bit, and she won’t be any sort of a price, but her usual race beats these (and that’s not a small statement, because this is a good group); #3 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (6-1): Chased the champ last time out in her first race since September, so there’s every reason to think she needed that effort. She should get more pace to chase, and on her best day, this three-time Grade 1 winner can fire a big shot; #1 RANDOMIZED (6-1): Was a distant second in the Grade 2 Ruffian last month, but that was her first start since a near-miss in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last November. She won the Grade 1 Alabama over this surface as a 3-year-old, and the recent, swift workout here indicates she’s thriving in upstate New York.
R8
Prince of Monaco
Book’em Danno
Reasoned Analysis
#7 PRINCE OF MONACO (7/2): Ships across the country for Bob Baffert and cuts back to seven furlongs for his 2024 debut in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He went 3-for-3 at sprint distances last year, including a win in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, and his work tab indicates he’s ready to run here; #1 BOOK’EM DANNO (9/2): Went 4-for-5 stateside before shipping to Saudi Arabia, where he was run down by eventual Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young. This seven-furlong trip should hit him right between the eyes, and he’s a major player if he can work out a trip from the inside post; #6 REASONED ANALYSIS (15-1): Turned in an eye-catching performance with his winning move in the Bay Shore downstate. That was against a weaker group, yes, but it’s not like they flew up front and the race fell apart. If the frontrunners go too fast early, this is the one they’ll need to deal with late.
R9
Arzak
Mischief Magic
Sosua Summer
#2 ARZAK (9/2): Has won three of his last four, with the lone defeat coming in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and he merits a long look in a power-packed renewal of the Grade 1 Jaipur. His last-out win in the Grade 2 Shakertown was a good one, and he’s run well at this route in the past; #12 MISCHIEF MAGIC (8-1): Has picked up checks in a pair of graded stakes races this year and gets reunited with first-call rider William Buick here. He’s also been gelded since his last start, which could result in a step forward for a horse that’s already a Grade 1 winner; #9 SOSUA SUMMER (20-1): Ran a clunker in the Shakertown, but he returns to his favorite turf course, one where he’s 3-for-3 at this route. He’ll certainly get a pace to chase, and at this price, I absolutely need to throw him in.
R10
White Abarrio
National Treasure
Hoist the Gold
#6 WHITE ABARRIO (6/5): Had a terrible trip to Saudi Arabia, where he was beaten 15 lengths in the Group 1 Saudi Cup. However, his run last year included a romp in the Grade 1 Whitney over this track, he’s training forwardly, and he’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 Met Mile; #2 NATIONAL TREASURE (8/5): Won last year’s Preakness and annexed the Pegasus World Cup in January before finishing fourth in Saudi Arabia. This one-mile trip should suit him, and if he’s allowed to get comfortable early, he could lead them a long way; #5 HOIST THE GOLD (15-1): Didn’t break well in the Churchill Downs last time out, where he was fifth behind True North favorite Gun Pilot. If he breaks well, he’ll definitely be a pace factor, and I think he’s better than what he showed last time out.
R11
Measured Time
Program Trading
Nations Pride
#9 MEASURED TIME (7/2): Most recently ran fourth in the Group 1 Dubai Turf against a world-class group. He’s already a Group 1 winner, he’s done very little wrong with five wins in seven lifetime starts, and if he ships well, he seems like the one to beat in the Grade 1 Manhattan; #5 PROGRAM TRADING (5/2): Came back running with a win in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard, running his career record to 5-for-6. He won a Grade 1 here last year, and if he takes a step forward second off the bench, he could absolutely do it again; #7 NATIONS PRIDE (9/2): Is the field’s leader in frequent flyer miles, with wins in five countries across three continents. One of them was in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby back in 2022, and I think he needed his run in the Grade 2 Man o’ War downstate off of a six-month break.
R12
Mystik Dan
Sierra Leone
Honor Marie
#3 MYSTIK DAN (5-1): Pulled off an upset in the Kentucky Derby and ran credibly when second in the Preakness two weeks later. He’s emerged as a consistent, versatile horse who can run well with any type of trip, which could come in handy in the Belmont Stakes; #9 SIERRA LEONE (9/5): Has displayed tons of ability and nearly ran down Mystik Dan in the Derby, but he was compromised by lots of contact. It’s not the first time he’s made his own trouble, and while his best race wins this, his temperament makes him difficult to trust at a short price; #8 HONOR MARIE (12-1): Never had a chance in Kentucky after being compromised by a terrible start. He was a “buzz” horse going into that race, he’s trained well since, and he should get plenty of pace to run at. If you liked him at 14-1 five weeks ago, you’ll likely get a similar price here.
R13
In All My Dreams
Bond entry
Top of the Table
#4 IN ALL MY DREAMS (7/2): Ran very well in her debut for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully-cranked. She made up ground in a race with a very slow early pace and was more than three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Any sort of improvement would make her tough in here; #1 ASSISI (15-1): Was the third-place finisher in that aforementioned event at Aqueduct, and she ran fairly well off of a long break. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride here, and that combined with the tightener she got last time out could move her forward; #10 TOP OF THE TABLE (10-1): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Offspring of Flameaway seem to like the lawn, she’s out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, and she may not need to move forward much from her two-back try at Aqueduct, when she was beaten just a neck by a next-out winner.
R14
What’s Up Bro (MTO)
Salt Spray
Yarrow
#2 SALT SPRAY (4-1): Set a very fast pace in his return at Keeneland before fading to third behind Clear the Air, who’s proven to be a classy turf sprinter. This field seems a bit weaker, and if he sets those kind of fractions in the Saturday finale, I think he runs his opponents off their feet; #6 YARROW (5-1): Was beaten less than a length in his first start since July last time out, and that day’s winner, Mischievous Angel, is another that could have a promising future. This gelding loves Saratoga, has never been worse than third in four local outings, and is reunited with soon-to-be Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario; #10 TWENTY SIX BLACK (6-1): Makes his second start off the bench and steps up into open company after a win against New York-breds downstate. He’s 3-for-3 on Lasix, gets that medication in this spot, and could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace.
BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $110
Saturday is a big day at Saratoga. The 14-race extravaganza headlined by the Belmont Stakes is a history-making event, and as a racing fan, I’m very much looking forward to it (even if the first post time is before 8 am out here in California; pass the caffeine, please!).
What I hope, though, is that NYRA does not use any successes this week to justify extending the annual Saratoga meet. Doing that, I think, kills the golden goose that lays the golden egg. The appeal of Saratoga is that it’s different, and that the town comes alive for two months after spending the previous 10 months waiting for the circuit to come back.
I don’t have any insight on if that’s being considered or not. However, I do hope decision-makers keep Saratoga feeling like Saratoga, in as many ways as humanly possible, for as long as humanly possible.
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: It was a good day in the pick box, but not so much here. El Capi sizzled through insane early fractions and had nothing left late. We dropped $50.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: With the fields as big as they are, I’ll take a stab at the Grand Slam, which starts in the eighth race and features the four Grade 1 races before the Belmont. My $2 ticket goes as follows: 1,7 with 2,9,12 with 2,5,6 with 9. The goal is to extract some value out of #9 MEASURED TIME in the payoff leg, the Grade 1 Manhattan. In addition, I’ll have a $14 win bet on Measured Time, too.
TOTAL WAGERED: $50.
