242  AXNT20 KNHC 060422 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 06 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0422 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Locally Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Cuba:  A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday. This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Soils remains saturated. So, the potential for flash flooding and mudslides continues, especially in north-central Hispaniola Thu afternoon and evening. Latest model guidance indicates a large area of convection over Cuba compared to previous model runs. The rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba will be heavily influenced by daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting.   Abundant moisture will remain in place, spreading over most of  Cuba and the Cayman Islands on Thu as another upper-level trough  reaches Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to  products from your local weather service for more information.  ...TROPICAL WAVES...  A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 32.5W from 11N  southward, and moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is  limited near the wave axis.   A second tropical wave is near 45W from 11N southward, and  moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection along  and behind the wave axis from 05N to 07N between 42W and 47W.  Another tropical wave is near 64.5W from 13.5N southward into  Venezuela, moving west at around 20 kt. The wave is enhancing  convection over eastern Venezuela.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W then continues  southwestward to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 06N31W,  from 06N34 to 06N43W, and from 06N46W to 05N51W. Aside from the  convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered  moderate convection can be found from 05N to 10N between 15W and  31W, from 05N to 09N between 38W and 42W.   ...GULF OF MEXICO...  High pressure of 1017 mb located near 29N63W extends a ridge  across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient  between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is  resulting in moderate to to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4  to 6 ft W of 87W, and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft  seas E of 87W. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in  southern Mexico persist across most of the Gulf, including the  Bay of Campeche. The latest smoke graphic indicates a medium  concentration of smoke across the western Bay of Campeche, while  a light concentration of smoke is across the eastern Bay of  Campeche.   For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE  Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days.  This pattern will support generally moderate to locally fresh SE  to S winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong  near the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate winds in the  eastern Gulf through early Fri. On Fri, the ridge will weaken,  allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the weekend. Hazy  conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and  Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing  visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times, mainly over the  southwestern half of the Gulf.   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...  Please read the Special Features section above for information on a locally heavy rainfall event.   As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is  helping to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over  Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The San Juan Doppler radar also  continues to indicate showers and thunderstorms over most of the  coastal waters of Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands.   Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds over the eastern  Caribbean where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere,  mainly gentle to locally moderate winds are observed with seas  of 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over the central Caribbean.  For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic along 31N/32N. A deep layered upper-level trough from  the W Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE  across the Atlantic, with associated showers and thunderstorms  spreading from the north-central basin across the NE Caribbean  through Thu. Gentle to moderate E to SE trade winds will  generally prevail across the basin through Thu, locally fresh in the SE. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will return to  SE portions of the basin Thu evening through Fri then gradually  shift across south-central portions through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. These winds may shift into the NW Caribbean early next week.  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...  A frontal trough extends from 26N55W to near the Windward  Passage. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds with seas of 7 to  9 ft are observed N of 24N and within about 130-150 nm ahead of  the trough axis. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is on  either side of the frontal trough S of 25N between 43W and 51W.  Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A diffluent pattern  aloft continues to support this convective activity. W of the  trough, high pressure of 1017 mb located near 29N63W dominates  the remainder of the western Atlantic, where gentle to locally  moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. E of the  trough, another 1022 mb high pressure system located near 26N34W  is in control of the weather pattern across the rest of the  forecast waters. A cold front enters the forecast area near  31N31W and continues SW to near 28N37W. Another cold front  enters the forecast area near 31N43W and continues SW to near  22N49W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is N of 20N and E  of 50W while mostly moderate trades are seen across the tropical  Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in this area.  For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned frontal trough  will drift E-SE and weaken through tonight. A deep-layered upper  trough across the W Atlantic extending from near Bermuda to the  north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region  through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and  75W that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. Weak high  pressure will begin to build across the basin in the wake of the  upper trough by early Thu, then shift slowly E-NE Thu night  through Fri night. A weak  $$ KRV