Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  455  AXPZ20 KNHC 030405 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 03 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC.  ...TROPICAL WAVES...  The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, from 16N southward,  moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 99W and 104W.  Active disorganized convection is expected to continue with this  system into the early part of the week. However, development of  this system appears unlikely.   ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northern Colombia to 10N85W to 09N92W to 11N100W to 10N108W to 10N117W to 09N123W to 09N130W to low pressure near 08N137W 1011 mb to  09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within  120 nm south of the trough between 100W and 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north  of the trough between 99W and 102W. also within 60 nm north of the between 109W and 113W, and within 60 NM south of the trough between 118W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 118W and 125, also between 136W and 140W, and within 60 nm south of the between 118W and 120W.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of  the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure  gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the  Gulf of California is supporting moderate northwesterly winds  across the Baja California waters extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail over the  remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6 ft off Baja  California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas  are in the 5-6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less  are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off  southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to  agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America.  Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm.  For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail  off the Baja California waters through the early part of the  upcoming week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail  across the open waters. Seas of 7 to 8 ft in NW swell are  expected off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy  conditions, dense at times, may persist off southern Mexico,  including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  Gentle to moderate NE winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with  light to gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle  to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in  the 4-6 ft range in long-period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions  continues off the Central American coast due to agricultural  fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may  decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.   For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the  monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the  monsoon trough for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke  caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may  reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American  offshore waters the next few days.   ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure  gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure  within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to locally strong  NE winds N of the monsoon trough to 22N and W of 120W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds  elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough seas of 6-8 ft in north to northeast swell prevail across all but the far NW waters, where seas are in the 5-6 ft range.  Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of the  monsoon trough.   For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds over the western  part of the area are forecast to diminish to mostly fresh speeds  Mon afternoon. Associated seas will slowly subside through late  Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected to the current  conditions over much of the area the next few days.   $$ Aguirre