South Africa heads for coalition as ANC support plunges

MIDRAND, South Africa — South African parties geared up for coalition talks on Friday as the governing African National Congress (ANC) looked set to fall well short of a majority for the first time in 30 years of democracy.

While the party of the late Nelson Mandela looked likely to remain the largest political force after Wednesday’s election, voters appeared to have punished the former liberation movement for years of economic decline, which have left many in poverty.

With results in from nearly 70% of polling stations, the ANC had 41.8% of votes, a precipitous drop from the 57.5% it secured in the last national election in 2019.

The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) was in second place on 22.6%. uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, was at 12.2% and eating into ANC support, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province.

MK has overtaken the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), currently the third biggest party in parliament, which was sitting on 9.5%.

Political parties’ share of the vote will determine the number of seats they get in the National Assembly, which then elects the next president.

That could still be the ANC’s leader, incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa. However, an embarrassing showing at the polls risks fuelling a leadership challenge — but the ANC’s Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane said he would not resign.

“Nobody is going to resign … Collectively, all of us, we still are confident that he (Ramaphosa) has to remain the president of the ANC,” she told reporters at the results centre.

“The leadership of the ANC will meet, structures of the ANC will be consulted. For now we are not talking to anybody,” she said.

Analysts said that at this stage in the vote count the ANC could not claw back up to win a parliamentary majority but it may still end up gaining more than 42% of the vote.

“The real question is 42% or 44%,” Reza Omar, strategic research director at Citizen Surveys, told Reuters.

“Limpopo, Eastern Cape and North West are ANC strongholds and some votes still have to be counted from these provinces.”

The ANC had won every previous national election since the historic 1994 vote that ended white minority rule, but over the last decade South Africans have watched the economy stagnate, unemployment and poverty climb and infrastructure crumble, leading to regular power outages.

Speculation was intense about which party or parties the ANC may approach to form a coalition and remain in government, or what other negotiations might be going on behind closed doors.

DA leader John Steenhuisen said calls would start over the weekend and his first move would be to meet other members of the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), an alliance of 11 opposition parties that was formed before the election, to see whether it could be expanded.

“The election (has) taken place now, we’ve got to play the hand that the voters have given us so we will look at a variety of options that will exist,” he told Reuters.