Oil rigs off the west coast of Africa | Credit: iStock
Research argues efforts to normalise end of new fossil fuel projects will be more effective for tackling climate change than 'complex' net zero goals
No further new fossil fuel projects are needed to sustain future global energy demand, with increasing levels of clean energy coming online worldwide expected to be more than enough to pick up the slack, according to major new research today.
In a paper published in the academic journal Science this evening, researchers from University College London (UCL) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) conclude that new coal, oil and gas projects are unnecessary for meeting projected future energy demand.
And, as a result, the study calls on governments around the world to enact legislation banning all new fossil fuel projects, which it said was a "crucial first step" countries must take to achieve climate goals.
The researchers argue establishing a "no new fossil norm" would be more effective at changing ethical norms and tackling climate change than complex, long-term climate targets, such as net zero by 2050.
To reach their conclusions, the researchers analysed expected future demand for oil and gas production and coal- and gas-fired power generation under a range of modelled scenarios that would cap global temperature rise to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the lower threshold target set out in the Paris Agreement.
From that, they found that existing fossil fuel capacity would be sufficient to meet the energy demands under all of these scenarios while the planet transitions to clean and renewable energy, and that the development of any new fossil fuel projects worldwide is therefore unnecessary.
"Our research draws on a large range of scientific evidence, including climate scenarios from the IPCC, but its message to governments and fossil fuel companies is very simple," said Greg Muttitt, senior associate at the IISD. "There is no room for new fossil fuel projects in a 1.5C-aligned world. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals means governments need to stop issuing permits for new fossil fuel exploration, production, or power generation projects."
The results would appear to bolster findings from the International Energy Agency, which in a landmark 2021 report concluded that no new fossil fuel extraction projects should be developed worldwide if the world is to stand a chance of limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5C by the end of the century.
Two years later, meanwhile, at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai last year, hundreds of countries agreed to work towards "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems".
However, countries around the world have continued to press ahead with oil and gas expansion plans, with many governments – including the UK's – claiming developing new oil and gas projects are compatible with the transition to net zero.
But UCL and IISD researchers said today that historical precedent suggested a global push for immediate bans of new fossil fuel projects would be more effective to create "social-moral norm change" than pushing towards broader, long-term climate goals.
"Our research draws lessons from past shifts in global ethical norms, such as slavery and the testing of nuclear weapons," said lead author Dr Fergus Green, from UCL's department of political science. "These cases show that norms resonate when they carry simple demands to which powerful actors can be held immediately accountable. Complex, long-term goals like ‘net zero emissions by 2050' lack these features, but ‘no new fossil fuel projects' is a clear and immediate demand, against which all current governments, and the fossil fuel industry, can rightly be judged."
Green added that governments' decision to ignore appeals to ban new fossil fuel projects could serve as a "litmus test" of whether they were serious about tackling climate change. "If they're allowing new fossil fuel projects, then they're not serious," he said.
UCL and the IISD said it was easier for governments to ban new fossil fuel projects and power plants that it would be for them to phase out existing capacity early. "Stopping new projects is less costly, faces fewer legal hurdles, and is politically easier," the researchers said.
Study co-author Olivier Bois von Kursk, a policy advisor at IISD, said a "no new fossil norm" would increase the world's chances of capping temperatures at 1.5C, the Paris Agreement's lower limit.
"No new fossil fuel projects are necessary to meet the 1.5C-aligned energy demand," he said. "Representative 1.5C scenarios show that a significant share of existing fossil fuel capital stock will become stranded if we are to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Establishing a 'no new fossil' norm increases the likelihood of staying within the 1.5C limit while minimising the economic, political and legal challenges associated with stranding fossil fuel capacity."
The study comes as the UK government's plans for a controversial Bill that would mandate annual licensing rounds for new oil and gas drilling projects in the North Sea have been dropped after running out of Parliamentary time owing to Rishi Sunak's decision to call a General Election on 4 July. Whether the Bill is taken forward in the next Parliament will likely depend on which Party leads the government after the upcoming election.
Labour has previously said it will put an end North Sea exploration if it leads the government after next month, but has also pledged to honour any existing contracts signed by under the Conservatives. That would mean the controversial Rosebank project could still go ahead, having won approval last September, despite warnings that the oil and gas field could produce more emissions over its lifetime than the combined annual CO2 output of the world's 28 lowest-income countries.
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