Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  137  AXPZ20 KNHC 290321 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 29 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 08N120W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within 60 nm of the coast from northwest Nicaragua to central Guatemala.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  A 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 33N137W extends  southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier  scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NW-N  winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the  strongest winds occurring south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these  waters are 4-6 ft.  Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and California, light to gentle winds and moderate  seas prevail. Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW  Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural  fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may  decrease at times to 3 nm or less.  For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja  California into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate  seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy  conditions may persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the  Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern  Mexico and Central America. Looking ahead, expect building seas  with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja  California from late Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9  or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds are noted on a recent scatterometer satellite pass south  of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.  Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas  prevail.   Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough reaching  from Cuba to Central America is producing scattered showers and  isolated thunderstorms affecting the nearshore and offshore  waters of Central America from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Hazy  conditions continue off the Central American coast due to  agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.  Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.  For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are forecast across the Papagayo region through Friday. Elsewhere,  gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the  monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are  expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in  the 4-6 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of  SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Hazy skies from  smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central  America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central  America offshore waters through the next few days.  ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  A 1032 mb subtropical ridge located north of the area continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The  pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower  pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 22N and west of 120W. Seas in  these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and  seas of 5-6 ft are noted from 19N to 26N and east of 120W.  Stronger winds and higher seas may be present near the  thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere,  moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.  For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region  will support an increased area of fresh to locally strong trade  winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to  build to 10 ft over the next few days. Meanwhile, northerly  swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8-10 ft in a combination of  NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and  moderate seas will persist elsewhere.   $$ Christensen