Foreigners lift India's derivative holdings to record $101 billion

Global investors’ holdings of equity derivatives in India have risen to a record days before the nation’s elections end, as signs emerge that they’re growing more confident about the likely outcome.

Foreign funds’ open interest, or the number of contracts outstanding in value terms, reached 8.4 trillion rupees ($101 billion) on the National Stock Exchange Tuesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The surge coincides with overseas funds turning net buyers of local shares in the cash market last week after a long spell of withdrawals. The positioning in index futures has also turned bullish after nearly a month, during which time their bets had reached the most bearish levels.

“We’re seeing an extremely bullish positioning by foreign investors, not just in terms of their index derivatives holdings, but also stocks,” said Dinesh Nagpal, a derivatives trader in Kolkata.

Bloomberg

Nagpal said the NSE Nifty 50 Index has a strong support at 22,000 level, and the benchmark gauge may test this level if Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led alliance isn’t awarded a landslide win. That implies a fall of about 3% from the current level.

Elections end on June 1 and market participants will get their first hint of the likely outcome later that day when the exit polls are released.