A Beijing motorscape | Credit: iStock
Data for March indicates world's largest emitter could have achieved a landmark peak in its CO2 emissions seven years early, analysis finds
China's carbon dioxide emissions have fallen for the first time since its economy began its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating the country's emissions could have already reached their peak, according to fresh analysis today.
Analysis published by Carbon Brief this morning notes that China's CO2 emissions fell by three per cent between February and March 2024, ending a "14-month surge" which followed the end of Covid restrictions in the country in December 2022.
China's rapidly growing share of wind and solar generation and declining construction activity were key drivers behind the fall in CO2 emissions recorded last month, according to the research.
Writing on Carbon Brief, analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said his analysis - which is based on official figures and commercial data - "reinforces the view that China's emissions could have peaked in 2023".
Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said that if clean energy sources continued to be deployed this year at the pace seen in 2023, it would likely mean China's emissions would have peaked last year.
China - which is responsible for more than a quarter of global emissions, making it the world's largest emitting economy - has pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030, as it works to achieve a goal to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
In 2023, the country added record amounts of solar and wind capacity, enabling the two clean energy sources to deliver 22 per cent of the country's power generation and almost 90 per cent of year-on-year demand growth in March.
The expansion of solar and wind meant fossil fuels' share of electricity generation fell to 63.7 per cent in March, down from 67.4 per cent a year earlier, according to the analysis.
While fossil gas consumption surged by 14 per cent - against a relatively low baseline - coal use fell by one per cent and oil demand remained flat.
As a result, it said power sector emissions - which have traditionally been the driver of China's emissions growth - only increased by one per cent year-on-year.
Myllyvirta said China's pledge to reduce the carbon intensity of its emissions by 65 per cent by 2030 depended on energy sector CO2 emissions falling over the coming years.
"Continued emissions growth would imply a major risk of missing China's 2030 carbon intensity commitment – which is part of its international climate pledge under the Paris Agreement – as there is no space for energy-sector CO2 emissions to increase from 2023 to 2030 under the commitment, assuming average GDP growth of five per cent or less," he wrote.
Meanwhile the country experienced a slow-down in the construction sector which also helped to reduce the country's overall climate impact. Cement and steel production in China were down 22 per cent and eight per cent on March 2023, respectively, according to the analysis.
Commenting on the analysis, Carbon Trust CEO Chris Stark - former CEO of the UK's Climate Change Committee - gave the findings a cautious welcome.
"Have we seen peak Chinese emissions?" he wrote on social media platform X. "We *may* have because wind and solar installations are now meeting most of China's extra energy demands (albeit in a construction slump). Hard to know if we've reached the peak, but best prepare for the descent.
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