In a statement posted on its website, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that its National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
The organization revealed in the statement that its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicts an 85 percent chance of an above normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near normal season, and a five percent chance of a below normal season.
NOAA said in the statement that it is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms. Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes, NOAA added. NOAA highlighted in the statement that forecasters have a 70 percent confidence in these ranges. The organization also pointed out that the hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA said in the statement.
“As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics,” it added.
“At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development,” it continued.
NOAA also warned in the statement that this hurricane season features the potential for an above normal west African monsoon, which it said can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer lived Atlantic storms.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in the statement.
“AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property,” he added.
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks said in the statement, “severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today”.
“Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding, and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow,” Hooks added.
NOAA revealed its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season back in May last year. That outlook predicted a 40 percent chance of a near normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above normal season, and a 30 percent chance of a below normal season.
In an update posted on its site in August 2023, NOAA said scientists at its Climate Prediction Center had increased their prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near normal level of activity to an above normal level of activity.
NOAA said in that update that its forecasters had increased the likelihood of an above normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent. The likelihood of near normal activity decreased to 25 percent, NOAA outlined in that update.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures show.
In October 2020, the BSEE estimated at one point that approximately 84.8 percent of oil production and 57.6 percent of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in as a result of Storm Zeta. Several other storms affected U.S. oil and gas production in 2020, including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura, and Tropical Storm Cristobal.
A gas and LNG market update sent to Rigzone by Rystad Energy recently highlighted that a tornado in Houston on May 16 “caused over 900,000 customers to lose power at the peak of the outage”.
“As of May 20, more than 200,000 are still without power,” the update stated.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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