Global light vehicle sales forecast – May 2024 edition

Automotive World's monthly global light vehicle sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region

Global light vehicle sales snapshot

In May the OECD’s forecast for global GDP growth in 2024 was boosted by 0.2pts from its February status, to 3.1%, the same as 2023. S&P’s May forecast was raised to 2.7% from 2.6% in April. The Conference Board kept its May forecast unchanged from April and March status, at 3.0%.

In a similar vein Automotive World’s regional forecasts of light vehicle demand in 2024 are mostly unchanged from prior status as demand in the Top-16 markets rose by 2.4% in April and by 6% over the first four months of the year.

India is the notable exception to the “mostly unchanged” comment. Strong GDP growth in recent quarters has led several forecasting bodies to raise their full-year forecasts by a significant margin. The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has commented: “There is a growing optimism that India is on the cusp of a long-awaited economic take-off. Recent indicators are pointing to a quickening of the momentum of aggregate demand.”.

This favourable economic background is evident in a rise of more than 14% in retail sales of light vehicles in April, according to preliminary data, likely to be slightly higher when the final data is available. Although some of the April increase is connected to the timing of festivals, the improved outlook supports a significant revision to our full year forecast for light vehicle demand, up by 1.8pts from prior status to 4.38 million units.

Global light vehicle sales update

Light Vehicle sales (000s) 2021 2022 2023 2024(f) Change -v- prior year Change -v- prior status (pts) Notes
China 24,605.1 23,367.3 24,481.8 25,338.0 3.5% 0.0 Q1 GDP growth of 5.3% y-o-y beat expectations but slight slowing expected in Q2. April data for retail sales, investment and credit missed expectations
N. America (US & Canada) 16,720.1 15,380.4 17,041.5 17,740.0 4.1% -0.1 Consumer confidence weaker. LV demand helped by price comp. / incentives but constrained by higher interest rates. Attention increasingly focused on election.
EU+EFTA+UK 13,798.0 12,937.0 14,838.7 15,293.0 3.1% 0.1 Business confidence weaker in April, but double-digit rise in LV demand in April. Still expected positive over full year. LCVs out-performing.
S. America 4,652.0 4,833.0 5,161.6 5,377.0 4.2% 0.1 Brazil consumer confidence higher in April, but wider South America weaker.
India 3,357.3 3,929.3 4,212.2 4,368.0 3.7% 1.6 Central bank: “growing optimism that India is on the cusp of a long-awaited economic take-off”.
Japan 4,361.5 4,121.4 4,632.8 4,723.0 1.9% -0.1 Demand distorted by Daihatsu scandal. However, consumer and business confidence remain high, particularly willingness to buy durable goods.
Asean 2,455.0 2,794.0 2,824.7 2,875.0 1.8% 0.0 Regional growth expected to slow to 4.5% in 2024 from 5.1% in 2023. LV demand weaker in first four months.
Middle East 2,408.4 2,451.8 2,640.6 2,634.1 -0.2% 0.0 Sharp decline expected in Turkey (regional leader) after two strong years.
RoW 7,827.5 7,025.7 7,362.9 7,428.0 0.9% 0.0
Total 80,185.0 76,839.9 83,196.9 85,776.1 3.1% 0.1
Change -4.2% 8.3% 3.1%

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Apr-24 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: YTD Apr 2024 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Next-11 markets: Apr 24 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Next-11 markets: YTD Apr 24 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Apr-24 -v- yr ago (%)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: YTD Apr-24 -v- yr ago (%)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Apr-24 -v- yr ago (000 units)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: YTD Apr-24 -v- yr ago (000 units)

Related Content