Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240235 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 24 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near  11N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 12N111W to 08N119W. The ITCZ  extends from 08N119W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate  convection is noted from 05N to 10N and E of 94W, and from 06N  to 10N between 110W and 130W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 18N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure  and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to gentle to moderate N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters.  NW swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate SW winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the  entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with seas  to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico  offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist with moderate winds along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coastline. Seas range 4 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in NW and SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread light haze  across areas from the southern Gulf of California and southern  Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This  could reduce visibilities.  For the forecast, the surface ridge will begin to retreat through the weekend as the high pressure NW of the area weakens. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds will continue over the Baja California offshore waters through Mon night. Winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to strong on Fri night  as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River  Valley. Winds will prevail moderate to fresh through the  weekend over the remainder of the Gulf. Light haze from smoke  caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce  visibilities over most of the Mexico offshore waters through Thu.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to  impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia, N of 02N and E of 91W. This is due in part to converging SW  winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Some  storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas.   Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N,  with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5  to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as  far south as Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the  coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities at times.  For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia  through Sat night. For waters south of 08N, winds will be  moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds  will persist across the Central and South American offshore  waters from Fri night through early next week S of 08N, with  light to gentle breezes north of 08N. Light haze from smoke  caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce  visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through tonight.   ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough near 12N111W. Convection around the low continues to diminish,  with some activity noted within 200 nm NE of the low. Combined  seas in this area are peaking to 6 ft.  Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered  near 37N147W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.  This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north  of the ITCZ along 07N to 20N and west of 115W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. N of 20N, winds are  light to gentle with seas 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate  to fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.  For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it  drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island  tonight. Convection will continue to subside as a result. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing winds and  combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue through  early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again.  Little change is noted over the remainder of the area.  $$ ERA