Hot and stormy: Level 1 risk for severe weather Thursday, highs reach 90s
Thursday will feature a hot, humid afternoon and a stormy evening.
Much of central North Carolina is under a Level 1 risk for severe storms on Thursday, then again on Saturday. Memorial Day weekend is expected to be unsettled, with plenty of chances for rain and storms.
Thursday will be a hotter day, reaching 92 degrees in Raleigh, the third day this month in the 90s.
Storm chances will increase in the afternoon and evening. The chance of storms increases to 40% by the evening commute and 60% by the late evening into overnight.
"Most of the day will be totally dry, but, as we get closer to the evening, we could see a few showers and storms," said WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione.
According to WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner, scattered storms could be in areas from the Triangle northward around 5 p.m. The storms will move south, moving away by early Friday morning.
There's a possibility of heavy downpours, gusty winds, and even hail.
- Thursday: High of 92 degrees. Level 1 risk for afternoon storms.
- Friday: Late-day storms. Highs in the upper 80s.
- Saturday: Level 1 risk for severe storms. Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 86.
Memorial Day weekend: Humid and stormy
No one day of Memorial Day weekend will be a washout, but there is a chance for storms all weekend. Friday, Saturday and Sunday each feature a 50 percent chance for precipitation.
"We're in summer-like pattern," WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell said. "That means pop-up, scattered thunderstorms the build in the heat of the late afternoon rather than an organized storm system with widespread impact."
"As it looks now, we would not be talking about washout conditions but, rather, scattered coverage each day," said WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione.
Lightning safety: Hear thunder, see Anvils, check winds - stay ahead of the storm
Here's how to stay safe:
Hear thunder? Head inside! If you can hear thunder, lightning is close enough to strike you. Seek shelter in a sturdy building or enclosed vehicle immediately.
Spot anvil clouds? Check the forecast. Anvil clouds, those flat-topped giants in the distance, often signal a strong storm approaching. It's a good idea to check the weather app for updates.
Watch for wind shifts. A sudden change in wind direction can indicate a storm's outflow. Check your weather app's radar to see the storm's movement.
7-day forecast for central NC
- Thursday: Sun then possible afternoon storms. High of 92.
- Friday: Late-day storms possible. High near 90 degrees.
- Saturday: Scattered showers and storms. Highs in the mid 80s.
- Sunday: Scattered showers and storms. Highs in near 90.
- Monday (Memorial Day): Hit and miss storms but mostly just hot. High of 90 degrees.
- Tuesday: Clear and cooler. High of 86.
- Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies. High near 80.
Prepare for a busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will see 17 to 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin, according to the NOAA forecast. The agency has never predicted a higher number of storms for a season.
The number of named storms is significantly higher than the long-term average and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State.
In 2024, NOAA researchers predict:
- 17 to 25 named storms
- 8 to 13 hurricanes
- 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The NOAA forecast is in line with earlier forecasts issued by North Carolina State and Colorado State universities.
A combination of a La Niña pattern and record warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean set up the conditions for storms to form, organize and strengthen.
