Commentary

What If Russia Wins?

Make no mistake: Ukraine is the battlefield for America’s future.

For most Americans, foreign wars tend to be an abstract issue. That is,  until our soldiers are “boots on the ground” and the horrible reality of war comes home through their experiences.

So it’s not surprising many have asked over the past two years whether getting involved in the Ukraine-Russia war was in the best interest of the United States, as it is being fought seven time zones away. Thus, many ask questions like: “Aren’t there other priorities for our tens of billions of dollars and our government’s attention?” “Don’t we have to secure our Mexican border first?” “Isn’t this Europe’s fight, not ours?”

We can’t fully appreciate how important it is for America to be involved in helping Ukraine defend itself from the unprovoked Russian invasion, the continuing atrocities it inflicts, and the unhinged rhetoric of its leader if we don’t imagine, at least for argument’s sake, what our world could look like if Russia defeats Ukraine.

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Russia would keep going and trip NATO treaty tripwires. Russia would be expected to leverage its momentum and war-footed, weapons-producing economy and apply pressure on more of its neighbors, probably in the Balkans or Baltics, or both. NATO nations abound in these regions and the U.S. would find itself bound by treaty to send in our troops.

Emboldened China, Iran and North Korea will step up their own regional aggressions. China takes Taiwan. Iran pushes harder on Israel as moderate nations in the Middle East lose their ability to hold Iran back. North Korea, sensing U.S. weakness, intensifies its ransomware cyber attacks against U.S. business and missile launches over Japan and South Korea, seeking economic payoffs from each of them.

World food security crisis. Russia didn’t just invade Ukraine because it wants a buffer zone to NATO; it wants control of one of the world’s greatest food producers. Taken together, Ukraine and Russia produced 30% of the world’s wheat and barley, more than 50% of its sunflower oil and 20% of its corn. No surprise that China is supporting Russia now, with more than $220 billion of trade over the past year, buying oil and food and sending cash and weapons components in return. Are you ready for Russia to control so much of the world’s food?

As noted author and Ukraine expert Timothy Synder tells us, Ukraine is like Czechoslovakia in 1938. If Europe had been able to stop Hitler there, we probably wouldn’t have had a Second World War. But if Ukraine falls, the world is onto a 1939 scenario -- and the possibility of a much bigger war, which might not be stopped in time.

Given the news from Ukraine over the past months, we all know that pushing back the Russians won’t be easy, and will require a lot more support, not just from the U.S., but particularly from other European nations.

To better understand what is likely to be required to keep Russia from winning, I highly recommend this solid piece from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a top think-tank on international issues, on potential solutions to the five key strategic challenges that it sees to victory in Ukraine today

What can you do to help? Please read the CSIS piece. The better informed we all are, the better our discourse and the better decisions we can all make.

If you agree that supporting Ukraine is in the absolute best interests of the U.S., which I certainly do, please reach out to your Congressional delegation and let them know. Thank those who supported the recent funding package. Let them know you care and are watching. Recommend that they keep the support up.

Finally, if your company outsources software and IT services, see if they use Ukraine firms. They are among the best in the world and, unfortunately, many U.S. companies have stopped doing business in Ukraine over concerns of work interruptions.

Those concerns have been unfounded. Despite Russian attacks against the country’s power infrastructure, Ukraine IT services companies have maintained 98+% uptime, showing incredible tenacity, creativity and super-smart usage of batteries and satellite internet -- and unbelievable, awe-inspiring people that will not be defeated!