Storms likely Thursday afternoon, particularly west Raleigh
Wednesday night will be in the mid-60s with a few passing clouds.
Although the day starts dry Thursday, storms are anticipated by around 4 p.m., particularly in the western part of our region. Commuters should brace for heavy downpours, gusty winds, and possibly hail by 10 p.m. By Friday morning, storms will move towards the North Carolina coast.
The pattern changes on Thursday, when much of central North Carolina is under a Level 1 risk for severe weather. In fact, afternoon storms are in our forecast all Memorial Day weekend through Monday, according to WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner.
- Wednesday night: A few passing clouds. Low 66.
- Thursday: High of 92 degrees. Level 1 risk for afternoon storms.
- Friday: Late-day storms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Days of storms through Memorial Day weekend
According to Gardner, Thursday will start out dry. The chance for storms comes after lunchtime and continues into the evening. The biggest threat is damaging wind gusts. Thursday will be a hotter day, reaching 92 degrees in Raleigh, the third day this month in the 90s.
The average number of 90-degree days at Raleigh-Durham International Airport in May is two. Humidity will make it feel steamy outside, but Thursday and Friday will feel tropical.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday each feature a 50 percent chance for precipitation.
"We're in summer-like pattern," WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell said. That means pop-up, scattered thunderstorms the build in the heat of the late afternoon rather than an organized storm system with widespread impact.
"As it looks now, we would not be talking about washout conditions but, rather, scattered coverage each day," said WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione.
Lightning safety: Hear thunder, see Anvils, check winds - stay ahead of the storm
Here's how to stay safe:
Hear thunder? Head inside! If you can hear thunder, lightning is close enough to strike you. Seek shelter in a sturdy building or enclosed vehicle immediately.
Spot anvil clouds? Check the forecast. Anvil clouds, those flat-topped giants in the distance, often signal a strong storm approaching. It's a good idea to check the weather app for updates.
Watch for wind shifts. A sudden change in wind direction can indicate a storm's outflow. Check your weather app's radar to see the storm's movement.
7-day forecast for central NC
- Thursday: Sun then possible afternoon storms. High of 92.
- Friday: Late-day storms possible. High near 90 degrees.
- Saturday: Scattered showers and storms. Highs in the mid 80s.
- Sunday: Scattered showers and storms. Highs in near 90.
- Monday (Memorial Day): Hit and miss storms but mostly just hot. High of 90 degrees.
- Tuesday: Clear and cooler. High of 86
Prepare for a busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will see 15 to 20 named storms in the Atlantic basin, according to researchers at North Carolina State University.
The number of named storms is significantly higher than the long-term average and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State.
In 2024, N.C. State researchers predict:
- 15-20 named storms
- 10 to 12 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six)
- Three to four becoming major hurricanes
Meanwhile, forecasters at Colorado State University are calling for 24 named storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. That is higher than the average year, when 14 storms earn a name.
CSU forecasters say 11 storms will reach hurricane strength, up from the average of seven, and five of those hurricanes could be "major," that is Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds over 111 mph.
