Padres Daily: Manny Machado’s math; Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. the wall; Jeremiah Estrada earns eighth

Good morning from Atlanta,

There are certain games where it doesn’t end up mattering.

But to the Padres, it always matters.

Every batter following the plan at the plate. Getting numerous runners on inning after inning, no matter the score. Taking extra bases. Applying pressure as constantly as possible.

Sometimes, like in the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader, it turns out that they come back and win. Sometimes, as in the second game of the doubleheader, they leave the tying run on second base once and have the tying run at the plate another time and end up getting shut out.

“In time, those will start turning into wins, but it’s gaining something from games like this and finding momentum in those little small moments,” Joe Musgrove said. “That might seem like not much, but to us it’s important.”

That is the message of their manager, and it is the message they heard from a Super Bowl champion.

Drew Brees, the former Chargers quarterback who went to New Orleans to get his ring and become a future Hall of Famer, addressed the Padres in the first week of the season. At the core of his message was the importance of building an identity moment by moment, developing the attributes of a winner even in losses.

The Padres believe that is what they are doing. It is the kind of thing you have heard them say day after day almost no matter the result.

They are 25-25 after taking three of four in Atlanta.

That might scream mediocrity to some.

To Mike Shildt, who has from the start preached the idea of growing and improving and building toward being their best, it says something else in the middle of May.

His team has won five of its past six series and 11 of its past 18 games. The Padres have come back from a deficit of four or more runs three times, including yesterday, most in the major leagues. They have scored four or more runs in an inning 18 times, including yesterday, most in the major leagues. Their runners on first and/or second base advance two bases on singles more than any other team.

“I feel like this club is in a really good spot,” Shildt said. “I think we’ve gained a ton of ground relative to how we’re going to play. We’ve clearly created an identify of how we’re going to compete, the resiliency, the grit. We did a lot of things really well. It’s just a matter of consistency. But our club is in a really good spot.”

You can read in my game story (here) about how the Padres went about splitting yesterday’s doubleheader, including an afternoon game in which Xander Bogaerts departed with a shoulder injury and Manny Machado’s two-run double completed a comeback from a five-run deficit.

Manny math

If you missed yesterday’s newsletter, because you had already moved on to prepare for the early game, you can read Machado’s thoughts from Sunday night (here) about why he has relished the season so far even as he has endured the worst start to a season in his 14-year career.

Multiple people around Machado say he has taken his struggles harder than he lets on publicly. Still, they say, he has remained remarkably even. And a day after once again confidently reiterating he was going to get back to being himself, Machado went 2-for-4 with two doubles, a run scored and two RBIs in yesterday’s first game and 1-for-4 in the second game.

He is 5-for-12 in the past three games after going 3-for-38 in the previous 10 games.

“Just keep adding up days — good days, good days, good days, and eventually those good days turn into a nice little streak,” he said between games yesterday. “So just keep adding good days, keep working, keep going at it and just keep having good at-bats.”

Machado has a penchant for emerging from slumps and going on lengthy tears. In each of the past nine seasons, he has had at least one stretch of at least 34 games in which he had an OPS of .970 or greater. Most times those stretches were much longer and the OPS was much higher.

“I know what I can do,” he said. “I know what I’m able to contribute.”

Will vs. wall

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s arm looked like he had been in a fight with a wild animal. Tatis tamed the beast, of course, but the battle left cuts along his arm.

His cuts were actually from the chain link fencing at the base of the right field wall that Tatis ran into practically full-force after making a catch on a long drive by Ronald Acuña Jr. to end the second inning.

Tatis ran 84 feet and, hardly slowing, reached out to catch the ball just a couple steps before smacking into the fence and then crumpling to the ground.

He got up as Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill sprinted over, and he ended up jogging back in toward the dugout with athletic trainer Mark Rogow and Shildt.

The ball had a 70 percent catch probability, according to Statcast. That is based on opportunity time, distance needed and direction. A 70 percent catch probability is considered fairly low, making Tatis’ catch relatively spectacular, per the metrics. But what that probability does not take into account is the wall and how many fielders would not have run that hard for that long in that situation.

“That’s the love for the game more than anything else,” Tatis said. “I knew it was going to hurt.”

Eighth options

Until this series, Shildt had called on Wandy Peralta in high-leverage situations in the eighth inning virtually every time the left-hander was available. That was regardless of whether a left-handed or right-handed batter was due up.

Peralta is no longer that guy. He is evidently one of the guys who could work in such moments. But it was Jeremiah Estrada doing the heavy lifting in two games against the Braves.

“He’s earned some more opportunity,” Shildt said of Estrada.

After earning his first career save by closing out Friday’s 3-1 victory with strikeouts of the Braves bottom three hitters, Estrada protected a 6-5 lead in the eighth inning of yesterday afternoon’s game by retiring the heart of the Braves’ order — Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Orlando Arcia.

Shildt said Peralta, who before coming on in the eighth inning of last night’s loss had not pitched since Tuesday, would have been the choice to work the eighth in the first game had the left-handed Olson been up first.

“The good news is we don’t have to have an absolute eighth guy,” Shildt said. “We’ve got a guy who can do this in the eighth and a guy who can do that in the eighth.”

King to miss Yanks

The shift in the Padres rotation caused by Saturday’s rainout lines up the Padres’ top three starters for this weekend’s series against the Yankees.

There is one guy who is particularly disappointed about that.

“Oh yeah, I was looking forward to it,” said Michael King, who would have been in line to pitch Sunday against his former team.

Tidbits

• Padres relievers allowed one run and stranded all three runners they inherited in 12⅓ innings during the series.
  
• Arraez extended his career-high on-base streak to 25 games with a pair of hits in each game yesterday. He has multiple hits in his past five games.
  
• Jurickson Profar extended his hitting streak to 10 games by going 1-for-3 in the first game and 2-for-4 in the second. Profar is batting .406 (13-for-32) during the streak.
  
• Tatis got his 499th career hit in the first game but went 0-for-4 in the second game.

All right, that’s it for me. Early flight to Cincinnati and then the start of a series against the Reds.

Talk to you tomorrow.