Where in California have wages trailed rent hikes the most?

The pain: Rent hikes outpaced pay raises in 44 of 50 big U.S. metropolitan areas during the past four years — and in four of six metros from California in this study.

The source: My trusty spreadsheet reviewed Zillow’s analysis of the growth in rents vs. increases in average hourly earnings between 2019 and 2023 across the nation.

The pinch

The pandemic economy was not kind to renters. Nationally, rents jumped 30.4 percent over four years vs. pay hikes of 20.2 percent — a 10.2 percentage-point cost shortfall for the typical tenant.

Next, consider the Inland Empire’s fast-growing economy. It could not keep pace with the rising cost of being a tenant by the widest margin in California.

In the past four years, rents in Riverside and San Bernardino counties jumped by 41.4 percent (the fourth-largest bump among the 50 metros). Meanwhile, wages in the Inland Empire rose by 23.3 percent (No. 7 nationally).

That meant the Inland Empire’s typical paycheck trailed the monthly rent check by 18.1 percentage points — the 16th worst gap among the 50.

The worst shortfall, nationally speaking? Tampa! Its 50 percent rent hike (No. 2 of the 50) badly trailed 15.3 percent raises (No. 27) — for a 34.7-point gap.

Pressure points

Three other California markets had smaller but similar gaps.

San Diego: 36.6 percent rent hike (No. 8) vs. 18.8 percent raises (No. 18) — trails by 17.8 points (No. 17).

Sacramento: 28.6 percent rent hike (No. 30) vs. 16.2 percent raises (No. 26) — trails by 12.4 points (No. 23).

Los Angeles-Orange County: 22.2 percent rent hike (No. 43) vs. 17.2 percent raises (No. 22) — trails by 5 points (No. 41).

But in the Bay Area — which has suffered significant population outflow in recent years that’s dampened housing demand — wages outpaced rents.

San Jose: 6 percent rent hike (No. 49) vs. 12.5 percent raises (No. 39) — ahead by 6.5 points (the second-biggest win for renters).

San Francisco: 3.4 percent rent hike (smallest among the 50) vs. 12 percent raises (No. 42) — ahead by 8.6 points (the biggest win).

Good news

At least this budget-busting trend cooled a bit last year, with pay increases in four out of the six California metros outpacing rents.

New construction of rentals plus slightly thinning demand for housing gave renters some pricing power. And a limited supply of workers kept pay hikes elevated.

San Jose’s 6.6 percent raises for 2023 beat a 0.8 percent rent gain. In the Inland Empire, 5.9 percent raises topped 3.1 percent rent hikes. San Francisco’s 2.6 percent raises bested a 0.1 percent rent cut. And LA-OC’s 2.7 percent raises surpassed 2 percent rent gains.

But Sacramento’s 1.6 percent raises were outpaced by 3 percent rent gains. And in San Diego, 1.4 percent raises trailed 3.1 percent rent hikes.

Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.