502  AXNT20 KNHC 111050 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 11 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  1030 UTC.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W south-southwestward to 10N18W and to 06N22W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N31W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is  from 02N to 04N and between 20W-28W. Scattered moderate  convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 28W-29W, and  within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-35W. Similar  convection is from the Equator to 06N between 35W-50W, and  northwest of the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 50W and the coast  of South America.  An area of numerous moderate to strong is offshore the coast of Africa from 02N to 05N between 08W-15W.  ...GULF OF MEXICO...  A stationary front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to  27N93W to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. No significant  convection is associated with the front. Overnight ASCAT data  shows moderate to fresh northeast to east winds behind the  front. Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, a weak  pressure pattern is present, with the related gradient allowing  for generally gentle to moderate winds. The overnight ASCAT data  also indicates moderate to fresh northeast to east winds near  the northern Yucatan peninsula and in the eastern Bay of  Campeche. These winds extend northward to near 24N. Seas  elsewhere are also 3 to 5 ft.   For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will soon  transition back to a cold front this morning and move southeastward across the basin, reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida to South  Texas this morning. The front will stall again from the Straits of Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken with its  remnants lifting back north as a warm front through Sun night.  Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow the front  into Sat evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate for  the start of next week, with another front or trough possibly  impacting the western Gulf by Tue. Meanwhile, haze due to  agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will  pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the next  few days. East winds at fresh speeds are expected to develop in  the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night and in the far south-central Gulf  near and in the Yucatan Channel.   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...  A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean, as high  pressure is centered across the east-central Atlantic, with a  ridge extending west-southwestward to the Straits of Florida as  inferred from overnight ASCAT data. The related gradient is  maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong east to southeast winds  over the outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are slight  to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft across the  Gulf of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions under a broad  anticyclone aloft prevail across most of the basin west of 70W,  except in the far southwestern part of the sea where scattered  showers and thunderstorms are noted. This is where the eastern  segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough exists. Similar  activity is over some sections of Costa Rica and Panama.  For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin will  continue support fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras,  moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and in the southeastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere  through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next week, with fresh to strong trades in the south-central and northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas  will build next week as a result of the increasing winds.  Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America  continues across most of the NW Caribbean.  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...  An approaching cold front is just north of the NW part of the  area west of about 76W to inland the Georgia/Florida border.  Satellite imagery shows increasing showers and thunderstorms moving east-southeastward out ahead of it from 27N to 30N between 72W and 80W, and also along and just north of 31N between 66W and  72W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front  between 66W and 77W. A weak trough extends from 29N60W to low  pressure of 1014 mb near 25N60W and continues to 19N61W. A few  showers are near these features. These features will have little  impact on marine conditions as they gradually weaken further this  morning. Another trough extends from near 29N49W to 19N48W.  Isolated showers are east of this trough from 22N to 30N between  44W and 48W.  Elsewhere, rather weak high pressure is the main feature that is  driving the general wind flow pattern across the discussion  domain. The high pressure is anchored by a 1026 mb high north of  the area at 34N32W. Overnight ASCAT data depicts a wide swath of  fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of 30N and between  77W and 80W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong  southwest winds are north of 27N and between 66W and 77W along  with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft  north of 30N. To the south, gentle to moderate easterly winds  remain north of the Greater Antilles to near 22N. Seas are 3 to  4 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover a  portion of the eastern waters. These trades are found north of  15N east of 30W, south of 19N between 30W and 46W, and south of  14N between 46W and 55W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft as  detected by latest altimeter satellite data passes over that  part of the eastern Atlantic.   For the forecast W of 55W, the weak high pressure over the area  will continue to retreat eastward as a cold front moves off the  southeastern United States this morning. The front will reach  from 31N72W to South Florida by early this afternoon, then from  just southeast of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sun.  Fresh to strong winds will be ahead of the front through Sat  evening, with moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Seas to  around 8 ft are expected with the fresh to strong winds. The  front is expected to weaken and slow down as it reaches from  31N59W to the southeastern Bahamas early Mon, then from 29N55W  to 23N65W early Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the  front. Another front may move over the waters east of northeast  Florida around mid-week. Ahead of this possible next front,  fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected over the  northwest part of the area starting late Mon.   $$ Aguirre