In a report sent to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up 1.2 million barrels for the week ending May 3.
“This compares to a 7.3 million barrel build for the week ending April 26, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing significantly looser than we had anticipated last week,” the strategists stated in the report.
“Moving to this week, from refineries, we model an uptick in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we anticipate a decrease, with exports up slightly on a nominal basis (+0.1 million barrels per day) and imports moderately lower (-0.4 million barrels per day),” they added.
Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance, the strategists warned in the report.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a minimal nominal increase this week,” they added.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a modestly larger increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] inventory (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” they continued.
The strategists also highlighted in the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline model is calling for a 1.6 million barrel build this week.
“Among products, we look for a draw in gasoline (-1.7 million barrels), with builds in distillate (+0.5 million barrels) and jet (+1.4 million barrels),” they said in the report.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.0 million barrels per day for the week ending May 3,” they added.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 7.3 million barrels from the week ending April 19 to the week ending April 26.
Crude oil stocks in the country, not including the SPR, stood at 460.9 million barrels on April 26, 453.6 million barrels on April 19, and 459.6 million barrels on April 28, 2023, the report showed. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 366.3 million barrels on April 26, 365.7 million barrels on April 19, and 364.9 million barrels on April 28 last year, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.607 billion barrels on April 26, the report outlined. This figure was up 8.5 million barrels week on week and up 8.7 million barrels year on year, according to the report.
In a report sent to Rigzone prior to the release of that EIA report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be “effectively flat” for the week ending April 26.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released today. The organization notes that its weekly petroleum status report “provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”.
Petroleum supply data presented in the report describe supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. regions called Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts, the report states.
Geographic coverage in the report includes the 50 States and District of Columbia, it adds. U.S. territories are treated as import sources but are otherwise excluded from weekly petroleum supply statistics, the report notes.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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