Battery costs have plummeted by 90% in less than 15 years, turbocharging renewable energy shift

While I'm not an expert on this, Just Have a Think is, and he has great videos on the subject. He has gotten me quite excited about Sodium-ion batteries as cheap, effective, and safe options for long term storage and huge backups. Think like a replacement for lead-acid batteries or whole-home battery backups, but much cheaper and way easier on the environment because it doesn't require lithium, which is becoming a source of global contention.
Lithium is very much the new oil at the moment and continues to be the bottleneck to electrification. Lithium batteries are also famously unstable if driven out of spec (see the horrendous battery fires).

gamerk2 said:

Economies of scale, and *exactly* why governments should underwrite useful technologies/products in order to allow them to become affordable in the market, rather then waiting literally *decades* for economies of scale to catch up.

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That's easy to say, until your government increases your tax rate to pay for 900 projects which never pan out, hoping for 1 that does.

Not to mention, the government already DOES underwrite this stuff, to the tune of billions of dollars in funding and tax incentives and social pushes. It takes time for tech to become economical. Throwing government money at it doesnt mean it will come faster.

Theinsanegamer said:

That's easy to say, until your government increases your tax rate to pay for 900 projects which never pan out, hoping for 1 that does.

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There is a long history of that happening. It's nothing new for any developed nation.
Plus, I'm a firm believer that we learn at least as much from failures as we do from success.

And how much of the earth has to be destroyed, to extract the materials necessary to produce these batteries.
Also, what about the disposal/recycle costs of some of the toxic materials used to make these batteries?

Somehow, I do not feel it. I walk into any supermarket here in Ireland, I see the same AAA set of 12 batteries being sold for 20 euro, just like 10 years ago. Maybe it is because technology progress has never bothered Ireland. Or maybe it is because all big retailers will keep ripping you off no matter what.

p51d007 said:

And how much of the earth has to be destroyed, to extract the materials necessary to produce these batteries.
Also, what about the disposal/recycle costs of some of the toxic materials used to make these batteries?

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In many respects, I would thoughtfully agree with the questions you raise, however, my socio-economics teacher from way back (whom also happens to be my Father) would also add "There is no point in this questioning without a viable and economical alternative being provided and discussed in a logical and calmly debated manner"...
So, I ask you, what do you think is an economical, environmentally friendly and fast to market alternative?
(I myself am unable to provide an alternative that does not destroy the environment, and/or create toxic material, and/or cost more than the average Earth person of can afford, and/or can be brought to market fast enough, and in enough capacity to replace existing energy provision before EOL...)

So that's why the Tesla Powerall v2 is still over $13K in Australia and v3 is no cheaper at all.

Got it, battery costs have plummeted just not for consumers.

Hoping that those cheaper battery will allow the coming of some cheap electric cars...

p51d007 said:

And how much of the earth has to be destroyed, to extract the materials necessary to produce these batteries.
Also, what about the disposal/recycle costs of some of the toxic materials used to make these batteries?

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On the other hand, though, these mines are very few comparatively.
For a good look at what is done to the planet look at some spent oil fields and coal mines.
And there are thousands of them.
Nasty stuff.

gamerk2 said:

Economies of scale, and *exactly* why governments should underwrite useful technologies/products in order to allow them to become affordable in the market, rather then waiting literally *decades* for economies of scale to catch up.

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It's far worse than that. Fossil fuel industries anticipated this shift and actively sabotaged the renewables industries for those decades buying politicians and sucking up billions in subsidies. In Australia, we still give colossal subsidies to the fossil fuel industry and sabotage renewables transition across the country.

Battery technology has been long overdue for a big step forward but until adoption can accelerate we will be stuck in the "dark ages" .... pun intended!

I live 100% off-grid solar. I have been buying batteries for nearly 20 years. No. The cost of batteries has NOT plummeted, at least not consumer prices. Lead acid batteries have gone up by 50% for under 150 ah batteries and 150 ah+ batteries have doubled in price. LiPO batteries have come down about 20% but are still at least 40-50% higher than equivalent LA batteries. This article is an example of what I DESPISE about alt energy fanatics. You act like posting best case scenarios and fairy farts is going to make energy transition happen while they live in all the comfort of homes and cars that are the biggest consumers of old energy. Those of us on the front lines who actually have to make alt energy work for us every damned day know you're blowing smoke. Solar panels ARE about half the price they were 20 years ago. That's the beginning and end of the rosy news for consumers. Storage is slightly cheaper for lithium based batteries, much more expensive for the OVERWHELMING majority of lead acid batteries. And every other part of solar systems is horrendously more expensive. I know because I just added 1500 watts more panels and am about to replace my battery bank.

In three years, the price of batteries decreased by half, plummeting from an average of approximately US$120 to US$56 per kWh. However, during the same timeframe, the cost of power stations and residential energy storage solutions only experienced a reduction of 20-26%. For instance, the EcoFlow station cited in the example boasts a capacity of merely 2 kWh.

This situation leaves me highly doubtful about the legitimacy of this green revolution. Even if sodium batteries, potentially cheaper than LFP, were to emerge, I remain skeptical about whether we'll reap the full benefits we anticipate. It seems that the green wave primarily serves to pad the bank accounts and boost the stocks of companies within the sector. Pure manipulation.

DanteSmith said:

In three years, the price of batteries decreased by half, plummeting from an average of approximately US$120 to US$56 per kWh. However, during the same timeframe, the cost of power stations and residential energy storage solutions only experienced a reduction of 20-26%. For instance, the EcoFlow station cited in the example boasts a capacity of merely 2 kWh.

This situation leaves me highly doubtful about the legitimacy of this green revolution. Even if sodium batteries, potentially cheaper than LFP, were to emerge, I remain skeptical about whether we'll reap the full benefits we anticipate. It seems that the green wave primarily serves to pad the bank accounts and boost the stocks of companies within the sector. Pure manipulation.

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Exactly right. On the consumer side we are seeing very little benefit from this supposed deflation of storage. I may not have been clear but the vast majority of off-gridders use lead acid because upfront costs are much lower than lithium based batteries. Those have nearly doubled for the size most used by off-grid systems. So, the real life costs are much higher. And things like commercial grade charge controllers and inverters, angle iron for mounting panels, fasteners, wire, etc, has pretty much doubled.

mantisman51 said:

The cost of batteries has NOT plummeted, at least not consumer prices.

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Hm, it's almost as if that in a Capitalist economy the cost of production has little to no correlation with the prices on the market. Production costs are down, but where is the incentive to make the product cheaper for the consumer?

How have battery prices plumeted, when a battery for e-bike costs 1000€, and for Tesla like 15.000€ or is it only in my country???

scavengerspc said:

There is a long history of that happening. It's nothing new for any developed nation.
Plus, I'm a firm believer that we learn at least as much from failures as we do from success.

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I think the problem with governments, at least the US government, is that are no consequences of failing. In the corporate world, if you fail continuously, you will be out of business or fired. In the government, you're likely to get promoted if you fail consistently. Since the government can just raise taxes or divert tax dollars to failing programs there's the likelihood that money will be wasted chasing a failed program instead of cutting your losses and moving on to something better.

In the government, I'm not so sure they learn from their mistakes.

VitalyT said:

Somehow, I do not feel it. I walk into any supermarket here in Ireland, I see the same AAA set of 12 batteries being sold for 20 euro, just like 10 years ago. Maybe it is because technology progress has never bothered Ireland. Or maybe it is because all big retailers will keep ripping you off no matter what.

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Same here. I was buying batteries in 2003 (for my ancient Game Boy console) for pretty much the same price I do today. I'm in another part of Europe, so it ain't just Ireland. The stores rarely lower prices. They just either stay the same or it go up. If food didn't get old fast, I'm sure they would sell the same food with 0 discounts too. Some say competition fixes prices, keeps stuff cheaper, I say... yeah? What happens when 1 store is greedy, and the others follow? You get the situation in my country. They even try to sell lightbulbs for what they did 10 years ago. Thank god for online shopping, cus otherwise I'd have to buy LED bulbs for like 10 euro. LOL. I often buy them for 1 buck from outside the country, sometimes even cheaper.

Anyways, go go greed is what im saying ;p

Antias said:

In many respects, I would thoughtfully agree with the questions you raise, however, my socio-economics teacher from way back (whom also happens to be my Father) would also add "There is no point in this questioning without a viable and economical alternative being provided and discussed in a logical and calmly debated manner"...
So, I ask you, what do you think is an economical, environmentally friendly and fast to market alternative?
(I myself am unable to provide an alternative that does not destroy the environment, and/or create toxic material, and/or cost more than the average Earth person of can afford, and/or can be brought to market fast enough, and in enough capacity to replace existing energy provision before EOL...)

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Nuclear, geothermal, and OIL. "but what about the Co2 emissions from oil, what about global warming"
They've been spouting that since the 70's and it's just hogwash.
What it takes to extract oil, takes up less "destruction" of the earth than extracting materials to make batteries.

p51d007 said:

Nuclear, geothermal, and OIL. "but what about the Co2 emissions from oil, what about global warming"
They've been spouting that since the 70's and it's just hogwash.
What it takes to extract oil, takes up less "destruction" of the earth than extracting materials to make batteries.

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Excellent points - at least for the PRODUCTION of the energy (I'm personally an advocate for the use of nuclear in Australia - doubt it'll ever happen), but what about the storage of the energy for use in devices and vehicles... Wouldn't that STILL require the mining of Lithium etc?

gamerk2 said:

Hm, it's almost as if that in a Capitalist economy the cost of production has little to no correlation with the prices on the market. Production costs are down, but where is the incentive to make the product cheaper for the consumer?

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Why not take an economics class and find out? Production costs only set a minimum price floor; the market price is determined by capacity and the relationship between that supply and demand ... with the caveat that high marginal profits quickly attract competitors, increasing capacity.

In any case, your point is moot as the IEA report is referring to actual battery pricing, not production costs. So either the report is lying, or Li-Ion batteries have indeed dropped by this amount (albeit on a per Watt-hr basis, not per-battery).

Endymio said:

Why not take an economics class and find out? Production costs only set a minimum price floor; the market price is determined by capacity and the relationship between that supply and demand ... with the caveat that high marginal profits quickly attract competitors, increasing capacity.

In any case, your point is moot as the IEA report is referring to actual battery pricing, not production costs. So either the report is lying, or Li-Ion batteries have indeed dropped by this amount (albeit on a per Watt-hr basis, not per-battery).

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I hate to say it, but I doubt any economics class would help.
And while you, and this article, are right that the price of Lithium batteries have dropped drastically, many here were talking about AA and AAA batteries and the cost of them for their Game Boy so, I don't much see any relevant comments coming in the future.

And the fact that the early Model S battery was $27000 for the 60 kWh, finding that the current 100 kWh battery can be had for $20000 will go unnoticed since they will look at the price, and not at what they are getting.