Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXNT20 KNHC 061013 TWDAT  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 6 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0900 UTC.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 05N18W.  The ITCZ extends eastward from 05N18W to 02N34W and to 02N50W.  Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N along both of these features.  ...GULF OF MEXICO...  High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends  southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE-E winds are  occurring off Yucatan and the NW Gulf, while moderate to locally  fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the western half of  the Gulf and the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7  ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail  in the rest of the basin.  Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident  in the SW and west-central Gulf.  For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in mainly fresh SE  winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally strong  winds will pulse nightly Tue through late week off the northern  and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in  southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...  A persistent upper level trough continues to enhance the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, across the Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. The trough will gradually weaken and move  farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will  remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds  and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall  continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local weather advisories for more information.   high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting  moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central and  eastern portions of the basin, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras.  Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds  and slight seas prevail.  For the forecast, the overall weather pattern will prevail into  mid-week. Late this week, SE winds will increase to fresh in the  Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW Caribbean.   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...  A 1024 mb high pressure centered between Cape Hatteras and  Bermuda dominates the SW North Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to  locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N and west of  60W. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.  Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 21N54W. Scattered moderate convection is along and just ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front  to 28W and north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Behind  the front to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh westerly  winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.   The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure centered near Madeira. Moderate to locally  fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 15N and west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower  pressures in NW Africa support fresh northerly winds north of 22N and east of 21W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore southern Morocco. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere in  the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas  are evident.  For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building N of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N through  mid week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center  well north of the region over the north central Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W tonight into Tue  night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off  northeast Florida starting Wed as the high pressure shifts  southeast ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas.   $$ Konarik