In December of last year, a multi-agency conference was held in New York to determine if there is a future gap in electricity supply and, if so, what to do about it. New York has legislated requirements to reduce carbon dioxide emissions 70% by 2030 and 100% by 2040 (Colorado targets are 80% by 2040 and 100% by 2050).

New York’s independent system operator, or NYISO, looked at 22 years of hourly historic data. Even using optimistic projections, there were numerous periods where future renewable generation would not meet projected loads. The modeling confirmed that a new resource is required — one that is firm, dispatchable, emissions free and can power the system for days. They dubbed this new resource “DEFRs” for Dispatchable Emissions Free Resources. “DEFRs” must be able to ramp up quickly, stay online for prolonged periods and provide frequency and voltage control to the grid.

There is only one problem — “DEFRs” do not yet exist. NYISO has requested a temporary delay for fossil generation retirement dates. Xcel Energy should do the same here in Colorado. Fossil generators (think Hayden and Craig) should not be shut down until and unless proven alternatives exist.

The clock is ticking toward a catastrophic blackout in New York. Lofty ambitions will collide with reality. An identical situation exists here in Colorado, where Xcel Energy acknowledges that net zero cannot be achieved with extant technology.

A modern society cannot exist without abundant, reliable and affordable electrical energy. Hoping for “DEFRs” is not a viable strategy.

Bill Rutledge
Steamboat Springs