Climate change to cripple world economy in 25 years: Study
A study conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany warns that climate change could lead to a 19% drop in average global income over the next 25 years. The research, published in Nature, indicates that nations with minimal contribution to climate change and limited resources will suffer most from this economic fallout. PIK scientist Maximilian Kotz stated, "The global economy is committed to an average income loss of 19% by 2049 due to past emissions."
Severe economic repercussions predicted for South Asia and Africa
The PIK study warns that South Asia and Africa will face severe economic repercussions, with a projected median income loss of around 22% by 2050. The research also predicts substantial economic damage within the next 25 years for nearly all countries, including developed nations like Germany, France, and the US. "Our analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world," said Leonie Wenz, who led the study.
Climate change's economic impact exceeds cost of carbon limitation
The projected economic loss due to climate change is six times greater than the cost of limiting carbon emissions enough to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, according to the PIK study. When other factors like rainfall and storms were considered, estimated economic damages rose by about 50% and varied more across different regions. The research drew on extensive weather and economic data from over 1,600 regions worldwide spanning the last four decades.
Equatorial regions to bear the brunt
The PIK study suggests that regions near the poles might experience some benefits due to less temperature variability, while those closer to the equator are likely to be hardest hit. "We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer. Further temperature increases will therefore be most harmful there," said Anders Levermann, head of Research Department Complexity Science at PIK and co-author of the study.
Least responsible nations face greater impact
The PIK research predicts that nations least responsible for climate change will face an income loss that is 60% greater than wealthier countries and 40% greater than high-emission countries. These nations also have the fewest resources to adapt to its impacts. "These near-term damages are a result of our past emissions. We will need more adaptation efforts if we want to avoid at least some of them," Wenz added.