Johnson’s Ukraine gambit

In today’s edition …  Democratic Senate candidates are still (mostly) outraising Republicans … Jury selection continues in Trump’s first criminal trial … but first …

On the Hill

Johnson’s Ukraine gambit

It all comes down to the rule. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces yet another major test of his speakership this week: Can he pass billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and keep his job as speaker? 

The plan he unveiled last night tries to do just that. It’s an attempt to placate his critics on the right while giving national security hawks a chance to advance billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. 

A draft of Johnson’s plan mirrors the $95 billion Senate-passed bill, according to five people familiar with the numbers, but it’s unclear whether it includes humanitarian assistance for Gaza and other places in need.

Johnson drew skepticism that the package will advance. And some of his critics are outraged. 

The plan

Johnson plans to introduce four bills as early as today, decoupling aid for Israel from help for Ukraine, which is more controversial in his conference. The speaker will then advance separate votes for aid to Taiwan and a measure to satisfy Republican foreign policy demands, including the seizure of Russian assets and a House-approved bill that could ban TikTok from the United States, Leigh Ann writes with our colleague Marianna Sotomayor. 

It’s a major gamble by the embattled Johnson, who was elevated to lead the fractious GOP conference after the unprecedented ouster of former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

The challenge

Johnson intends to try first to pass the measures through regular order to appease his conference.

To do that, he’ll move the bills under a rule that requires a simple majority for approval — a difficult feat for Republicans alone to do because of the slim two-vote GOP majority. (Democrats typically don’t vote for Republican rules and vice versa.)

It remains unclear whether hard-right members who have excoriated Johnson for putting a Ukraine bill with no border security provisions on the floor would try to block the rule. They’ve repeatedly tanked legislation by voting against their party’s rules in the past, a tactic rarely used before this Congress. 

• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said she’s “firmly” against the plan. 
• Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.) was despondent. “It is what it is,” he said. 
• Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said he’d advance the rule in the Rules Committee but wouldn’t say how he’ll vote on the floor. “The border is what’s killing this country,” he said. 
• Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chair of the House Freedom Caucus, said “many Americans will be disappointed.”

Much of the conversation in a Republican conference meeting yesterday turned to adding border security provisions in some way (even though it was Republicans who walked away from a bipartisan border security agreement earlier this year).

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) suggested passing a rule to instruct the Senate to vote on a partisan border security measure House Republicans passed last year known as H.R. 2 before bringing up any House-passed national security package, according to two lawmakers in the room. The idea, several GOP lawmakers tell us, isn’t terrible. 

A lifeline?

Greene said she hasn’t decided whether she’ll move to remove Johnson as speaker.

“I support the majority, and I want it next time. So I’m being careful,” she said. “He’s definitely not going to be speaker next Congress if we’re lucky enough to have the majority.”

Democrats are open to helping Johnson pass the rule --- but they have demands, including that its aid provisions mirror the Senate bill, including help for places in crisis, such as Gaza, senior Democratic aides say. 

It’s a similar position to what House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said about helping Johnson if Greene moves to vacate: pass the Senate supplemental. 

If Republicans are unsuccessful in passing their bills, Johnson will be left with few options on how to proceed. He could package the measures together and rely on Democrats to pass it without a rule, which requires the support of two-thirds of the chamber.

Either way, Democrats could play a major role in the outcome, which won’t be great for Johnson’s standing in his conference. 

The campaign

Democratic Senate candidates are still (mostly) outraising Republicans

Democrats outraised Republicans in the first three months of the year in six of the seven Senate races expected to determine control of the chamber, according to newly filed disclosures — even though several Republicans wrote their campaigns six- and seven-figure checks.

Here’s a rundown of the top races:

• Arizona: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who’s running for the seat that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is relinquishing, raised $7.5 million and had $9.6 million on hand. Kari Lake, whom former president Donald Trump has endorsed, raised $3.6 million and had $2.5 million on hand. Another Republican, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, raised about $241,000 and had about $254,000 on hand.
• Michigan: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin raised $4.4 million and had $8.6 million on hand. She’s running for the seat that Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is vacating. On the Republican side, former congressman Mike Rogers — who won Trump’s endorsement last month and is the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s pick — raised nearly $1.1 million and had nearly $1.4 million on hand. Former Republican congressman Peter Meijer, raised about $315,000 — including $80,000 he loaned his campaign — and had about $244,000 on hand.
• Montana: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester raised $8 million and had nearly $12.7 million on hand. That’s a lot — especially in Montana. Tim Sheehy, a Republican who has Trump’s endorsement, raised $3.1 million — including $500,000 he loaned his campaign — and had $1.9 million on hand.
• Nevada: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen raised $5 million and had $13.2 million on hand. Sam Brown, the Army veteran whom the NRSC is backing, raised $2.4 million and had $2.3 million on hand. Jeff Gunter, Trump’s former ambassador to Iceland, who is running against Brown in the Republican primary, raised nearly $2.9 million — $2.7 million of which he loaned his campaign — and had nearly $2.6 million on hand. Jim Marchant, a former state assemblyman, raised $49,000 and had $51,000 on hand. 
• Ohio: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $12.1 million and had nearly $16 million on hand. Bernie Moreno, who won the Republican primary last month, raised nearly $3.7 million — including $1.5 million he loaned his campaign — and had less than $1.8 million on hand after dispatching two primary rivals.
• Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey raised nearly $5.7 million and had $11.9 million on hand. Republican Dave McCormick, the former hedge fund executive running against Casey, raised nearly $5.4 million — including nearly $1 million he loaned his campaign — and had $6.2 million on hand. (Casey and McCormick’s reports cover three more days than the others because of a filing deadline quirk.)
• Wisconsin: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin raised $5.4 million and had nearly $10.3 million on hand. Eric Hovde, a Republican real estate developer who announced in February that he would challenge Baldwin, raised nearly $9.1 million — $8 million of which he loaned his campaign — and had $5.3 million on hand. 

What we're watching

On the Hill

The House impeachment managers are expected to walk the articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the Senate this afternoon. The Senate will accept the articles and start the process for a trial tomorrow. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to move to dismiss or table the impeachment trial tomorrow. 

In the House, Mayorkas will be testifying before the Homeland Security Committee about the agency’s fiscal year 2025 budget. 

At the White House

President Biden is heading home to Scranton, Pa., where he’ll give a speech today contrasting his tax plan with Trump’s.

• “The president has spoken about these broad themes, including in the State of the Union, but now is a moment and tomorrow where he will speak more specifically and more directly about the stakes associated with two very different visions for tax policy, and frankly for our country and for our economy,” Brian Deese, Biden’s former National Economic Council director, told reporters yesterday.

We’ll be watching whether Biden uses the phrase “Bidenomics” in the speech.

Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director, deflected when asked yesterday whether Biden was pivoting from the catchphrase, which the White House embraced last year but which drew mockery from Republicans and puzzlement from some Democrats.

• “Listen, I’m sure there’ll be a lot of questions and chatter about semantics in the press,” Tyler told reporters. “But the bottom line is this: We are focused on communicating the facts of the case.”

From the courts

Today, the Supreme Court will weigh whether the rioters who breached the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to disrupt the certification of Biden’s 2020 victory should have been convicted and sentenced under a statute that bars obstructing or impeding an official proceeding. 

• “The high court’s ruling, likely to land in late June, has the potential to undo the convictions and sentences of those who have already gone to trial or pleaded guilty, and upend the charges still pending for many more,” our colleague Ann E. Marimow wrote over the weekend. 
• “The case could also directly impact Trump’s own trial for allegedly trying to remain in power after his 2020 defeat; two of the four charges he faces are based on the obstruction statute, and he could move to have those charges dismissed if the Supreme Court rules for the rioters.”

The case is Fischer v. U.S.

Programming Note

Larry Summers and Yale Law School professor Natasha Sarin, who have worked in the Obama and Biden administrations, respectively, and are Post contributing columnists, will be on Washington Post Live today at noon Eastern time. The pair will share their insights about U.S. tax policies, the future of the national debt and the state of the American economy.

From the courts

Jury selection continues

Jury selection resumes this morning in the first criminal trial of a former U.S. president. 

Hundreds of potential jurors will be vetted by prosecutors and defense attorneys, answering questions about their education, news consumption and jobs that could indicate where they fall on the political spectrum. Twelve jurors (and six alternates) are needed to decide Trump’s fate. Not a single juror was selected on Monday in the 15th-floor courtroom at the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse, underscoring how laborious the process will be.

Trump is required to be in the courtroom each day for a trial that New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan has said could last six to eight weeks.

Here’s what you need to know: 

Trump’s weakness with female voters is in the spotlight: “Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s team said they wanted to play the recording of Trump making lewd remarks about groping women on the set of ‘Access Hollywood,’” our colleagues Isaac Arnsdorf and Hannah Knowles report. “They pushed to reference the women who came forward after the tape’s disclosure to accuse Trump of sexual misconduct. Prosecutors also said they wanted to describe a previous hush money scheme with a Playboy model, Karen McDougal, and to specify that during that alleged encounter, Trump’s wife was pregnant.”

The first batch of potential jurors said they have no strong views of the defendant: Of the 96 potential jurors who filed into the courtroom Monday afternoon, only 10 were questioned. They included “longtime New Yorkers, and some relative newcomers, who mostly read the New York Times, listen to NPR and watch CNN,” per our colleague David Nakamura. “A few said they tune in to Fox News and read the conservative-leaning New York Post.”

More hush money reads from our colleagues: 

• The Trump Trials: Day One is in the books. Here’s some key takeaways. By Perry Stein and Devlin Barrett.
• Trump seems to nod off briefly as prospective jurors get instructions. By Isaac and Devlin.

The Media

Must reads

From The Post: 

• Biden’s options for retaliating against Iran risk antagonizing China. By Jeff Stein.
• Iran attack complicates Biden’s push to change the course of Gaza war. By Yasmeen Abutaleb.
• Russian weapons help Iran harden defenses against Israeli airstrike. By Joby Warrick.
• Supreme Court allows Idaho to enforce ban on gender-affirming care for minors. By Casey Parks and Ann E. Marimow.
• Biden uses release of 2023 tax returns to draw contrast with Trump. By Cleve R. Wootson Jr.
• ICYMI: Ukraine, watching U.S. coalition protect Israel, feels alone. By Siobhán O’Grady and Kostiantyn Khudov.

From across the web: 

• Arizona GOP strategy document implores party to show ‘Republicans have a plan’ on abortion. By NBC News’s Alex Tabet and Adam Edelman.
• ‘Just tired of these trials’: Why the MAGA crowd is so thin outside Trump’s New York trial. By Politico’s Adam Wren and Emily Ngo.
• U.S. employers must accommodate abortions, birth control, agency says. By Reuters’s Daniel Wiessner.

Viral

Two queens maximizing their joint slay

Thanks for reading. You can also follow us on X: @LACaldwellDC and @theodoricmeyer.