It’s make or break time for Israel, Ukraine aid … and Johnson

On the Hill

It’s a pivotal moment for Johnson on Israel and Ukraine aid – and his job

While the White House works on reducing the prospects of an expanded war in the Middle East, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has the weight of U.S. allies’ futures — and his job — on his shoulders. 

He’s expected to make a decision this week on how he will address the crises in Israel, Gaza, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific.

He’ll host a Republican conference meeting tonight to discuss it, one person familiar with the meeting said. But frustrated Republicans who think it’s past time to fund Ukraine and Israel hope his decision is imminent. 

Johnson and his staff spent yesterday discussing options.

President Biden convened a call with Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to discuss Iran’s Saturday night attack on Israel. The president encouraged Johnson to pass the Senate’s $95 billion funding bill for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza humanitarian aid and Taiwan, according to a readout from the White House. 

This week was long expected to be crunchtime for Johnson on national security funding, after he promised to tackle the issue once the House passed a FISA reauthorization and funded the government — two priorities with deadlines.  But after Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones toward Israel over the weekend, pressure on Johnson to act has only increased. 

His decision will have consequences. Let’s weigh his Goldilocks dilemma: 

Option 1: Put an Israel-only aid package on the floor.

This option would stave off threats to his job. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and other anti-Ukraine-aid members are unlikely to activate their motion to vacate if Johnson moves forward with an Israel-only bill again. 

But Democrats note that approach will only prolong Israel’s time without more U.S. aid because Democratic senators won’t pass a bill that doesn’t include Ukraine aid, too. A previous Israel-only aid bill failed in February because it didn’t garner two-thirds support in the House. (The House passed an Israel funding bill last year, but it was a non-starter in the Senate because it included unrelated funding cuts to the IRS.)

“The best way to help Israel rebuild its antimissile and anti-drone capacity is by passing that [Senate-approved] supplemental immediately,” Schumer said at a news conference in New York yesterday. The White House agrees. 

Furthermore, Johnson could lose control of the House if angry Republicans who want to back Ukraine decide to sign on to one of the two discharge petitions --- a House maneuver that would allow lawmakers to go around the speaker and force a vote on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan funding.  

Option 2: Put the Senate-passed funding bill on the floor.

This move would absolutely anger Greene and the anti-Ukraine faction and could trigger a motion to vacate. But it would get significant support among Republicans (potentially a majority?) and most Democrats. 

Top national-security-focused Republicans, including the chairs of the House Intelligence and Foreign Affairs committees, Reps. Mike Turner (Ohio) and Michael McCaul (Tex.), expressed support Sunday for the Senate-passed supplemental. 

Democrats point out that more than half of the funding for Israel in the Senate package would go to air defenses like what Israel used to protect itself from the Iranian missiles and drones. 

Jeffries has said Democrats will help Johnson keep his job if he puts the Senate bill on the floor. 

Option 3: Cobble together legislation that includes provisions to appease more Republicans (including former president Donald Trump) like making aid to Ukraine a loan.

Reading the tea leaves, this is the most likely plan. “We’ll put something together and send it to the Senate,” Johnson said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

But any package would have to have buy-in from Schumer, McConnell and the White House. Johnson has been having conversations with those parties for more than a week, multiple sources say. 

But it risks opening up the package to challenges and more complications with passing it again in the Senate. 

The House is back today, and we should know a lot more in the next 24 hours. In the meantime, House Republicans will put forward 17 bills to condemn Iran and show support for Israel this week. 

What we're watching

On the Hill

Impeachment: The Senate could receive impeachment articles from the House for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as early as Tuesday. Johnson held the articles of impeachment at the request of Republican senators who wanted more time to use the impeachment — which will go nowhere — to debate the border. 

FISA: But now the Senate is running up against the clock on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which expires April 19. Schumer is expected to start the process to take up the House-passed FISA bill as early as today, but the impeachment process could delay passage of FISA. 

Budget prep: It’s budget week on Capitol Hill, with many cabinet officials and agency heads set to testify before the House and Senate appropriations committees about the fiscal year 2025 budget, including: Attorney General Merrick Garland, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, acting labor secretary Julie Su and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

At the White House

Biden will meet today with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, followed by a meeting with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

He’ll devote much of the rest of the week to crisscrossing battleground state Pennsylvania.

On Tuesday, Biden will give a campaign speech about taxes in Scranton, Pa., his hometown. Then he’ll head to the other side of the state for an official speech near Pittsburgh on Wednesday before heading back to the White House.

On Thursday, he’ll return to the state for two campaign events in Philadelphia.

On the campaign trail

Tonight is the deadline for presidential, Senate and House campaigns to file their campaign finance reports for the first month of the year.

The campaign

Trump’s first criminal trial kicks off today. Here’s where his cases stand.

Trump’s first criminal trial is set to kick off today in Manhattan, with unpredictable and potentially enormous ramifications for the presidential race.

It’s the first criminal trial of a former president — but the case is only one of four cases in which Trump is facing charges. 

The Stormy Daniels case

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg charged Trump last year with 34 counts of falsifying business records related to his hush money payments during his 2016 campaign to buy the silence of adult-film actress Stormy Daniels, who has said she had an affair with Trump while he was married. (Trump has denied it.)

The trial will “test a defense strategy [Trump’s] lawyers have been honing for a year — a confrontational gambit that has angered the judge and could cost the presidential candidate dearly when it comes to a verdict,” our colleagues Devlin Barrett, Josh Dawsey, Perry Stein and Mark Berman report. “Fight for every scrap of evidence. Push for every possible delay.” 

• “The approach has succeeded so far in Trump’s three other pending criminal cases, potentially pushing all of them into or past November’s presidential election.”
• “Surprisingly it is in Manhattan, at a courthouse notorious for lengthy delays before many criminal trials, that the former president and presumptive Republican nominee will face his first judgment day.

Here’s what to expect as the trial gets underway:

• “Hundreds of potential jurors will be summoned to Manhattan criminal court this week to answer questions about whether they can fairly judge the former president,” Perry and Devlin write. “The jury selection process could take about two weeks. Twelve jurors will be selected, plus alternates.”
• “The judge can dismiss any potential juror he thinks should not serve — and each side has 10 strikes they can use to disqualify a potential juror. Each side also gets two strikes for each alternate juror.”
• The trial will not be televised.

While we’re at it, here’s a reminder of where the other three criminal cases against Trump stand:

The classified documents case

Special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump last year with violating the Espionage Act by hanging on to classified documents after he left office and with obstructing the government’s efforts to get them back.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon rejected Trump’s bid this month “to have his charges of mishandling classified documents dismissed on the grounds that a federal records law protected him from prosecution,” Devlin and Perry report.

• “Cannon’s ruling may clear a path for her to decide a host of other unresolved pretrial issues, including the most basic question of when the trial will be held.”

The federal election case

Trump is facing federal and state charges related to his attempts to overturn the results the 2020 election, which he lost.

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments next week to review Trump’s claim that he should be immune from prosecution because he was not convicted during his impeachment trial in the Senate in 2021, our colleague Ann Marimow reports. The court’s decision delayed the start of the trial in the case, which was set to start last month.

The Georgia election case

Trump is also facing charges in Georgia related to his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election there.

Trump’s lawyers moved to dismiss the case “by claiming the charges were based on statements that they argued were ‘core value political discourse’ and constitutionally protected speech,” our colleague Holly Bailey reports. But Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee disagreed, ruling this month “that alleged speech ‘in furtherance of criminal activity’ is not protected by the First Amendment.”

Trump is also seeking to get District Attorney Fani Willis tossed from the case because of her romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. McAfee ruled last month that Willis could stay on the case but also allowed Trump to appeal to the Georgia Court of Appeals.

At the White House

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries deepen tensions with U.S.

Our colleague John Hudson takes us inside the rift between Washington and Kyiv over whether Ukraine should continue its military attacks on Russian oil refineries. “Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals,” John reports. And while U.S. officials acknowledge that keeping global energy markets supplied to help cool inflation is a priority, “it’s also important for sustaining support for the Ukrainian war effort in Europe.”

The Data

Israel’s defense systems, visualized: “Iran launched waves of drones and missiles toward Israel on Saturday in retaliation for Israel’s attack on an Iranian site in Damascus, Syria, this month,” our colleagues Júlia Ledur, Tim Meko and Samuel Granados report. “A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said Iran fired over 300 ballistic missiles, UAVs, suicide drones and cruise missiles. The vast majority were intercepted outside of Israeli territory, according to the IDF.”

• “After the attack, the IDF highlighted the close coordination of a coalition led by U.S. Central Command, the U.K., France, and other countries, highlighting the Aerial Defense Array and the defensive abilities of the the Israeli Air Force’s aircraft. According to the IDF, out of over 120 ballistic missiles, only a few crossed into Israeli territory. They caused minor damage to infrastructure at the Nevatim Air Force Base.”

The Media

Must reads

From The Post: 

• USPS got billions in financial aid, and now says it needs more. By Jacob Bogage.
• Homeland Security investigative agency seeks rebrand, without ICE. By Nick Miroff.
• Biden counsels Netanyahu to ‘slow things down’ after Iranian attack. By Karen DeYoung and Matt Viser.
• Arab nations call for restraint as Israel-Iran conflict intensifies. By Kareem Fahim, Sarah Dadouch, Claire Parker and Mustafa Salim.
• ICYMI: Could you judge Trump impartially? By Azi Paybarah and Michael Cadenhead.
• ICYMI: Texas county at center of border fight is overwhelmed by migrant deaths. By Arelis R. Hernández, Marina Dias and Daniele Volpe.

From across the web: 

• This prosecutor pledged to change George Floyd’s city. Her critics are circling. By the New York Times’s Ernesto Londoño.

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